政治局谈论习下台后人事，军科委赵晓哲缺席政治局会议，董军还是要查处。杭州市委书记刘非背后的北戴河会议交锋
政治局谈论习下台后人事，军科委赵晓哲缺席政治局会议，董军还是要查处。杭州市委书记刘非背后的北戴河会议交锋
大家好，
政治局每次会议之后，一般都有集体学习。政治局开会一般没有画面，但是集团学习有画面。上个月政治局就没有集团学习。没有画面，后来周边工作会议给了所有还喘气的政治局为委员的镜头。每次集体学习最重要的政治功能就是打卡。必须出席，不出席就是被抓了。每个月就一次还不出席，还能继续干吗？
我们就赶紧点点人头缺谁，缺席肯定就被抓了。出席，这个政治局委员，马兴瑞，李干杰，何立峰都在排队等着被中纪委查处呢。
我们看他们坐这个顺序，正对着习包子，右边半圈只坐了8个人。两八十六，刚好少一个何卫东。我们再看左边这半圈。这何立峰抬头望天的镜头太经典了。我以前还纳闷呢，为什么张红文还有心情傻笑，何立峰总是哭丧着脸。这是2024年10月。苗华就是晦气，和苗华在一起都要抓，陈希和倪岳峰要抓，这何立峰和苗华同框也要抓。
云南省政府秘书长孙灿2024年5月就抓了。孙灿是何立峰在滨海新区搭档的宗国英的秘书。何立峰肯定知道。估计何立峰知道孙灿被抓了之后，心情就不好了。光凭何立峰和宗国英在天津滨海新区搭档，不能百分百证明他们两个人是一个派系的。何立峰是区委书记，宗国英是区长。但是他们很可能是同一个上级提拔的。要把这个逻辑搞清楚，也有可能他们两个人是不同的上级提拔的。应该是一个派系的，抓宗国英的目的就是为了抓何立峰。要不然中国31个省会呢，为什么要把昆明市单独拿出来巡视。这就太明显了。所以他们想干什么，我们就知道了。
壮志未酬，仰天长叹啊。右边8个人，左边7个人，何卫东和王毅缺席。王毅不知道出国访问，还是什么原因缺席。
这名网友说，
4月25日的政治局第20次集体学习会议，其他政治局委员都出席了，何卫东还是没有出席，印证了被抓的传闻。
我的回复是，对，何卫东，肯定被抓了。
然后还有中央书记处书记王小洪，国务委员谌贻琴等人。其他几个人只能算作列席，中办副主任孟祥锋，政策研究室正部长级唐方裕，军民融合办正部级常务副主任邵新宇，因为是有关人工智能的会议，和科技，军队的业务沾边。外交部正部级的常务副部长马朝旭。说明马朝旭可能是顶替王毅出席的。王毅不知道跑哪儿去了。教育部长怀进鹏，工信部长李乐成。感觉都是正部级的给镜头，后面还有不认识的低级别官员。
李强大秘国务院秘书长吴政隆，中组部正部级的常务副部长姜信治，中宣部正部级的常务副部长胡和平，网信办主任庄荣文，科协党组书记贺军科，发改委主任郑栅洁，科技部长阴和俊，国安部长陈一新，后面还有一个上将，好像是装发部长许学强，装备发展部长。这对于这些正部级的官员来说，也是一次打卡的机会。
中国工程院院长李晓红，财政部副部长郭婷婷，央行副行长中国外汇局局长朱鹤新，工信部副部长，中国航天局局长，中国原子能主任，中国国防科技工业局局长单忠德。军科委副主任徐为进少将顶替军科委主任赵晓哲中将出席政治局学习。中央军事科技委员，说明赵晓哲中将可能被抓了。
赵晓哲和董军是绑定的，说明董军还得抓。去年赵晓哲陪同张又侠出席会议，我就说赵晓哲要抓。不需要任何消息，就看是不是习近平的人，是习近平的人，早晚就得抓。
赵晓哲是中央委员级别很高，中国现在有6个省长也不过是中央候补委员。
这个一定要相信常识，董军1978年参军，当时他才17岁。苗华2014年12月担任海军政委，董军都已经53岁了。前面36年董军干嘛去了，不能喝西北风啊。35岁正部级定律，35岁正部级定律。董军后期肯定是苗华提拔的，这个没错，但是前面那36年呢。苗华凭什么提拔董军，前面那36年的人脉关系积累。35岁正部级定律的好处就是准确，难点就在于，级别太低，年代又久远，没什么资料。
中国这些俗语都挺逗得，苟富贵，勿相忘。习近平发家之前认识习近平才能被提拔。等到习近平已经发家了，再去政治投机，那就晚了。当然了，董军上了习近平这条贼船，也上错了，所以我说人生如梦。
赵晓哲是中将军科委主任，大连舰艇学院出身。赵晓哲的导师王受众是朱镕基清华大学的同班同学。赵晓哲自己亲口说的，跟了王受众两轮，一日为师终身为父。董军早期在大连舰艇学院走的是赵晓哲和朱镕基的关系。后期才是苗华彭丽媛提拔的。早年如果董军不认识朱镕基，苗华和彭丽媛凭什么提拔的董军呢？
逻辑关系就是因为徐为进少将作为军科委副主任，顶替军科委主任赵晓哲出席政治局集体学习，说明赵晓哲可能被中纪委军纪委查处了，赵晓哲和董军是绑定的。所以董军得前景也很不妙。有人分析认为董军可能在明年二会退休到政协。我觉得还是低估了中国政治斗争的残酷程度。
这是吃人得国家机器，你死活我的斗争，不是含情脉脉得请客吃饭。共产党都是不讲规矩，不讲武德。董军能够平安退休到政协，那只能算作奇迹。就说习近平即便现在不掌握大权了，除非把习近平打成四人帮反革命集团，那么习近平多多少少还能有一点点权力的。有多少不好说，5%，1%。如果说习近平只能保一个人，那么他肯定不会保董军，肯定是保何卫东苗华，如果只能保一个人，习近平的第一选择是苗华。
我们之前分析过，在31军的架构里面，苗华赵克石才是老大。不是何卫东。所以习近平要保的话，第一选择是苗华，第二选择是何卫东，董军肯定要往后排。现在苗华和何卫东习近平都保不住。
这名网友说，
大包你不用再强调了，也不用到处找证据佐证了，我可以百分百的说，何卫东，苗华，林向阳，王厚斌，王秀斌全部被抓了，他们说的什么兵变全是假的，实际上就是反习势力来利用习近平抓了习近平自己提拔的人，证据摆在面前的时候，即便习近平是总书记他也不可能明着偏私。
我的回复是，中共的权力确实是这么运作的。台面下面怎么运作是另外一回事情。就是鸭子凫水，在下面用脚掌运作的。等到报告最后都交到习近平桌子上了。习近平就和橡皮图章一样，他自己人他也得画圈抓啊。他要保自己人要在桌子底下运作，现在习近平也不掌握大权。人家把他的人抓了，他还顶着总书记军委主席的名头。他自己含着泪也得签字画圈把苗华和何卫东抓了。
这名网友说，常务副省长和杭州市委书记是同级吗？
这名网友回复说，都是副部级，杭州副省级杭州一号位置更好点，容易上三把手专职副书记
这名网友回复说，都是副部级但是杭州市委书记一把手含金量非常高，不是普通省委常委副省长能媲美的
我的回复是，这个有现成的数字，首先省委副书记，提拔省长是最多的，省会书记和常务副省长，都可以直接提拔省长。省会书记直接提拔省长的情况多于常务副省长。第二个维度就是省委书记权力大小的排名。这是历史上省委书记晋升政治局常委或者政治局委员的积分。浙江在中国的政治版图上排名第10，云南排名第27，云南就是边陲，没有什么存在感。所以胡锦涛或者江泽民才把人藏在那里，积蓄实力。藏在山西，藏在宁夏，这几个省胡锦涛的人比较多，也不全是，但是比较多。虽然薄熙来王岐山都是山西的，但是令计划刘云山也是山西的。
所以刘非从云南组织部长调到杭州担任市委书记肯定是重用。我没有破解刘非，他大概率是张德江李强的人。张德江去年十一不是出来过吗？他们出来就是要和习近平争夺权力的。如果习近平大权在握，绝对不会允许这些老登出来的，他们既然出来了，就是宣誓主权的。我说了他不把习近平按在地上摩擦也不出不来。
权力是排他的，只能有一个胜利者，他们出来了，那就是习近平不行了。他们出不来，那就是习近平掌握大权。
刘非前任杭州市委书记刘捷，就是担任了2年的杭州市委书记然后升任浙江省委专职副书记三把手，然后1年后升任浙江省长。我们注意，2024年12月13日，刘捷升任浙江省长，刘捷压根就没有辞去杭州市委书记。直到2025年4月25日，刘非任杭州市委书记。刘捷的杭州市委书记才自然被免掉。2025年3月18日左右，曼哈顿，天际线还扫黄，当时的杭州市委书记就是刘捷。
刘捷前面的杭州市委书记周江勇，是习近平亲自指挥的亲手提拔的，象山县委书记。本来就是要提拔浙江省长，被江泽民给抓了。当时的中纪委书记就是赵乐际。
2021年8月21日，周江勇被抓。当时就在开北戴河会议。
2021年8月28日，姜春云/金人庆/张育军，三个人在同一天死了。
8月28日就是北戴河会议结束的那一天。周江勇在北戴河会议中间就给抓了。所以2021年的北戴河会议，江泽民和胡锦涛已经赢了一局，让习近平退休。习近平当时也假装答应了，后来又反悔了。北戴河会议，江胡赢了之后，提拔了一波官员。
这个我也分析过，2021年的北戴河会议之后，江泽民和胡锦涛实力涨了一部分，但是并没有绝对性的压倒习近平。习近平的实力，缩水一部分，总体实力还在。后来习近平就是通过20大军事冒险，强行连任。
但是江泽民胡锦涛政治集团也在北戴河这次交锋中，打下了权力的基础。奠定了二十届三中全会之前干翻习近平的权力基础。不是一口吃成胖子的。周江勇背后就是北戴河会议的结果。要不然习近平亲手提拔的香山县委书记凭什么拿下呢？所以刘非上位可能是江派在采摘胜利果实呢
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
The Politburo discussed personnel after Xi stepped down. Zhao Xiaozhe of the Military Science and Technology Commission was absent from the Politburo meeting. Dong Jun still needs to be investigated. The confrontation at the Beidaihe meeting behind Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee Secretary Liu Fei
Hello everyone,
After each Politburo meeting, there is usually a collective study session. There is usually no footage of the Politburo meeting, but there is footage of the group study session. Last month, there was no group study session in the Politburo. There was no footage, and later the peripheral work meeting gave footage of all the Politburo members who were still breathing. The most important political function of each collective study session is to clock in. You must attend, and if you don’t attend, you will be arrested. If you don’t attend once a month, what can you do?
Let’s quickly count the people who are missing. If you are absent, you will definitely be arrested. Attending, this Politburo member, Ma Xingrui, Li Ganjie, and He Lifeng are all waiting in line to be investigated by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
Let’s see how they sit in this order, facing Xi Baozi, there are only 8 people sitting in the right half circle. Two eight sixteen, just one less He Weidong. Let’s look at the left half circle again. This shot of He Lifeng looking up at the sky is too classic. I used to wonder why Zhang Hongwen was still in the mood to giggle, while He Lifeng always had a sad face. This is October 2024. Miao Hua is unlucky. Everyone with Miao Hua will be arrested. Chen Xi and Ni Yuefeng will be arrested. He Lifeng and Miao Hua will also be arrested.
Sun Can, Secretary General of the Yunnan Provincial Government, was arrested in May 2024. Sun Can is the secretary of Zong Guoying, He Lifeng’s partner in Binhai New Area. He Lifeng must know. It is estimated that He Lifeng was in a bad mood after knowing that Sun Can was arrested. Just because He Lifeng and Zong Guoying partnered in Tianjin Binhai New Area, it cannot be 100% proved that they are from the same faction. He Lifeng is the district party secretary and Zong Guoying is the district mayor. But they are likely promoted by the same superior. To make this logic clear, it is also possible that the two of them were promoted by different superiors. They should be from the same faction, and the purpose of arresting Zong Guoying is to arrest He Lifeng. Otherwise, why would China have 31 provincial capitals? Why did they single out Kunming for inspection? This is too obvious. So we know what they want to do.
Unfulfilled ambitions, sighing to the sky. There are 8 people on the right and 7 on the left. He Weidong and Wang Yi are absent. I don’t know if Wang Yi is on a visit abroad or for some other reason.
This netizen said,
The 20th collective study meeting of the Political Bureau on April 25 was attended by other members of the Political Bureau, but He Weidong was not present, confirming the rumors of his arrest.
My reply is, yes, He Weidong must have been arrested.
Then there are Wang Xiaohong, Secretary of the Central Secretariat, Chen Yiqin, State Councilor, and others. The other few people can only be counted as attending, including Meng Xiangfeng, Deputy Director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee, Tang Fangyu, Minister-level of the Policy Research Office, and Shao Xinyu, Executive Deputy Director of the Military-Civilian Integration Office, because it is a meeting about artificial intelligence, which is related to science and technology and military business. Ma Zhaoxu, Executive Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This means that Ma Zhaoxu may have replaced Wang Yi to attend. Wang Yi is unknown where he went. Minister of Education Huai Jinpeng, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng. It feels like they are all ministerial-level officials, and there are also unknown low-level officials behind them.
Li Qiang’s Secretary-General Wu Zhenglong, Secretary-General of the State Council, Jiang Xinzhi, Executive Vice Minister of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee, Hu Heping, Executive Vice Minister of the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee, Zhuang Rongwen, Director of the Cyberspace Administration of China, He Junke, Secretary of the Party Group of the China Association for Science and Technology, Zheng Zhajie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Yin Hejun, Minister of Science and Technology, Chen Yixin, Minister of National Security, and a general behind him, who seems to be Xu Xueqiang, Minister of Equipment Development. This is also an opportunity for these ministerial-level officials to clock in.
Li Xiaohong, President of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, Guo Tingting, Vice Minister of Finance, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Director of the China Space Administration, Director of China Atomic Energy, and Shan Zhongde, Director of the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense. Major General Xu Weijin, deputy director of the Military Science and Technology Commission, replaced Lieutenant General Zhao Xiaozhe, director of the Military Science and Technology Commission, to attend the Politburo study session. As a member of the Central Military Science and Technology Commission, Lieutenant General Zhao Xiaozhe may have been arrested.
Zhao Xiaozhe and Dong Jun are tied together, which means Dong Jun must be arrested. Last year, Zhao Xiaozhe accompanied Zhang Youxia to attend the meeting, and I said Zhao Xiaozhe would be arrested. No news is needed, just see if he is Xi Jinping’s man. If he is Xi Jinping’s man, he will be arrested sooner or later.
Zhao Xiaozhe is a member of the Central Committee, and his rank is very high. China now has 6 provincial governors who are only alternate members of the Central Committee.
This must be based on common sense. Dong Jun joined the army in 1978, when he was only 17 years old. Miao Hua served as the political commissar of the Navy in December 2014, and Dong Jun was already 53 years old. What did Dong Jun do for the first 36 years? He can’t just sit there and do nothing. The 35-year-old ministerial-level law, the 35-year-old ministerial-level law. Dong Jun must have been promoted by Miao Hua in the later period, this is true, but what about the first 36 years. Why did Miao Hua promote Dong Jun? The connections he had accumulated over the past 36 years. The advantage of the 35-year-old ministerial level rule is that it is accurate, but the difficulty is that the level is too low and the time is too long, so there is not much information.
These Chinese proverbs are quite funny. If you become rich, don’t forget each other. You can only be promoted if you know Xi Jinping before he becomes rich. It will be too late to speculate in politics after Xi Jinping has become rich. Of course, Dong Jun got on the wrong ship of Xi Jinping, so I say life is like a dream.
Zhao Xiaozhe is the director of the Science and Technology Commission of the Lieutenant General and graduated from the Dalian Naval Academy. Zhao Xiaozhe’s mentor Wang Shoushou was Zhu Rongji’s classmate at Tsinghua University. Zhao Xiaozhe said it himself, “I have followed Wang Shoushou for two rounds, and once a teacher, I will be a father for life.” Dong Jun’s early years at the Dalian Naval Academy were due to the relationship between Zhao Xiaozhe and Zhu Rongji. Later, Miao Hua and Peng Liyuan promoted him. If Dong Jun didn’t know Zhu Rongji in his early years, how could Miao Hua and Peng Liyuan promote Dong Jun?
The logical relationship is that Major General Xu Weijin, as the deputy director of the Military Science and Technology Commission, replaced Zhao Xiaozhe, the director of the Military Science and Technology Commission, to attend the collective study of the Political Bureau, which means that Zhao Xiaozhe may have been investigated by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Military Commission for Discipline Inspection. Zhao Xiaozhe and Dong Jun are tied together. So Dong Jun’s prospects are not good. Some people analyze that Dong Jun may retire to the CPPCC at the second session next year. I think this still underestimates the cruelty of China’s political struggle.
This is a cannibalistic state machine, a life-and-death struggle, not a love-filled dinner. The Communist Party does not follow rules and martial ethics. It can only be regarded as a miracle that Dong Jun can retire safely to the CPPCC. Even if Xi Jinping does not hold power now, unless Xi Jinping is labeled as a counter-revolutionary group of the Gang of Four, then Xi Jinping can still have a little power. It is hard to say how much, 5%, 1%. If Xi Jinping can only protect one person, then he will definitely not protect Dong Jun, but He Weidong and Miao Hua. If he can only protect one person, Xi Jinping’s first choice is Miao Hua.
We have analyzed before that in the structure of the 31st Army, Miao Hua and Zhao Keshi are the bosses. Not He Weidong. So if Xi Jinping wants to protect, the first choice is Miao Hua, the second choice is He Weidong, and Dong Jun must be ranked behind. Now Xi Jinping can’t protect Miao Hua and He Weidong.
This netizen said,
Da Bao, you don’t need to emphasize it anymore, and you don’t need to look for evidence everywhere. I can say 100% that He Weidong, Miao Hua, Lin Xiangyang, Wang Houbin, and Wang Xiubin have all been arrested. What they said about the mutiny is all fake. In fact, the anti-Xi forces used Xi Jinping to arrest the people promoted by Xi Jinping himself. When the evidence is in front of them, even if Xi Jinping is the general secretary, he can’t be biased openly.
My reply is that the power of the Communist Party of China does work like this. How it works under the table is another matter. It’s like a duck paddling in the water, using its paws to operate from below. When the report was finally handed over to Xi Jinping’s desk, Xi Jinping was like a rubber stamp. He had to circle and arrest his own people. He had to protect his own people and operate under the table. Now Xi Jinping does not have the power. People arrested his people, and he was still the general secretary and chairman of the military commission. He had to sign and circle Miao Hua and He Weidong with tears in his eyes.
The netizen asked, are the executive vice governor and the secretary of the Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee at the same level?
The netizen replied that they are both at the vice-ministerial level, and Hangzhou’s vice-provincial level is better, and it is easier to become the third-in-command and full-time deputy secretary
The netizen replied that they are both at the vice-ministerial level, but the Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee Secretary is very valuable, and it is not comparable to ordinary provincial party committee members and deputy governors
My reply is that there are ready-made numbers. First of all, the deputy secretary of the provincial party committee is the most promoted to governor. The provincial capital secretary and the executive vice governor can both be directly promoted to governor. The provincial capital secretary is more likely to be directly promoted to governor than the executive vice governor. The second dimension is the ranking of the power of provincial party secretaries. This is the points that provincial party secretaries have accumulated in history to be promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee or Politburo members. Zhejiang ranks 10th on China’s political map, and Yunnan ranks 27th. Yunnan is a borderland with little presence. So Hu Jintao or Jiang Zemin hid people there to accumulate strength. There are more people hiding in Shanxi and Ningxia, but not all of them, but more. Although Bo Xilai and Wang Qishan are from Shanxi, Ling Jihua and Liu Yunshan are also from Shanxi.
So Liu Fei must have been re-employed when he was transferred from Yunnan Organization Minister to Hangzhou as Municipal Party Secretary. I have not cracked Liu Fei. He is most likely Zhang Dejiang and Li Qiang’s people. Didn’t Zhang Dejiang come out last October? They came out to compete with Xi Jinping for power. If Xi Jinping is in power, he will never allow these old people to come out. Since they came out, they are swearing sovereignty. I said that he would not come out unless he pressed Xi Jinping to the ground.
Power is exclusive, and there can only be one winner. If they come out, it means that Xi Jinping is no longer good enough. If they can’t come out, it means Xi Jinping is in power.
Liu Jie, the predecessor of Liu Fei, was the Secretary of Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee. He served as the Secretary of Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee for 2 years and was promoted to the third-in-command of the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee. Then he was promoted to the Governor of Zhejiang Province one year later. We note that on December 13, 2024, Liu Jie was promoted to the Governor of Zhejiang Province, and Liu Jie did not resign from the Secretary of Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee at all. It was not until April 25, 2025 that Liu Fei became the Secretary of Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee. Liu Jie’s Secretary of Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee was naturally removed. Around March 18, 2025, Manhattan, the skyline was also cracking down on pornography, and the Secretary of Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee at that time was Liu Jie.
Zhou Jiangyong, the Secretary of Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee before Liu Jie, was personally promoted by Xi Jinping and the Secretary of Xiangshan County Party Committee. He was originally going to be promoted to the Governor of Zhejiang Province, but was arrested by Jiang Zemin. The Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection at that time was Zhao Leji.
On August 21, 2021, Zhou Jiangyong was arrested. The Beidaihe meeting was being held at that time.
On August 28, 2021, Jiang Chunyun, Jin Renqing, and Zhang Yujun died on the same day.
August 28 was the day when the Beidaihe meeting ended. Zhou Jiangyong was arrested in the middle of the Beidaihe meeting. So in the Beidaihe meeting in 2021, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao had already won a round and asked Xi Jinping to retire. Xi Jinping also pretended to agree at the time, but later regretted it. After Jiang and Hu won the Beidaihe meeting, they promoted a wave of officials.
I have also analyzed this. After the Beidaihe meeting in 2021, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao’s strength increased to a certain extent, but they did not absolutely overwhelm Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping’s strength shrank a little, but his overall strength was still there. Later, Xi Jinping forced re-election through the military adventure of the 20th National Congress.
However, the political group of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao also laid the foundation for power in this confrontation in Beidaihe. It laid the foundation for overthrowing Xi Jinping’s power before the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee. It is not a one-shot deal. Behind Zhou Jiangyong is the result of the Beidaihe meeting. Otherwise, how could Xi Jinping, who personally promoted the secretary of the Xiangshan County Party Committee, take down the position? So Liu Fei’s promotion may be the Jiang faction reaping the fruits of victory.
Okay, thank you everyone.
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