江马仔要习：幡然悔悟。蓝天立应声落马，李文博落马，涉金湘军案。何立峰官宣习近平下台
江马仔要习：幡然悔悟。蓝天立应声落马，李文博落马，涉金湘军案。何立峰官宣习近平下台
大家好，
这名网友说，广西政府主席蓝天立被调查。大包分析下派系。
这有啥可分析的。如果被抓了，那肯定是习近平马仔。大家就记住这句话就行了，覆巢之下，焉有完卵。这是一个8岁的孩子，孔融的儿子话。大中华胶一天到晚吹中国。老祖宗的话，十分之一都没学会。军队31军被胡锦涛团灭，没有枪杆子保护，习近平的马仔不等着被抓吗？前两天陈刚不是刚说了，要习近平幡然醒悟，痛改前非。回头是岸。
难道还要怀疑陈刚的实力吗？他是江泽民的扬州老乡。陈刚是2025年5月7号说的，5天之后，蓝天立就被抓走了。这名网友说假的，这名网友说真的，这是小孩犟嘴，不管真假，给个理由啊。
这名网友说，准确吗？常委会议没去，听说昨天直飞北京了？真假的，真的，什么原因被带走？山西省长金湘军瓜葛，之前的中组部长对调，上面的人没了，蓝天立是陈希的人。蔡奇要抓权了。前面都说的挺好的，最后一句就是扯淡，蔡奇也要被抓了，还蔡奇抓权呢。
其实我的标题都已经写的很清楚了。山西省长金湘军被抓了，广西政法委副书记李文博被抓了。如果蓝天立和金湘军，李文博两个人关系密切。那么三个人，现在抓了两个人。第三个人还想跑吗？蓝天立如果去北京，不是去中纪委自首，就是被中纪委带走了。
这三个人都是小马仔。2025年5月12日，根据广西壮族自治区纪委监委消息，广西壮族自治区党委政法委副书记李文博涉嫌严重违纪违法，目前正接受自治区纪委监委纪律审查和监察调查。李文博就是一个正局级，那肯定是陈刚抓的。陈刚，刚上任5个月，新官上任三把火，杀人立威。陈刚都已经警告要幡然悔悟，痛改前非。
这事儿可能还真跟胡锦涛的关系不大。可能是金湘军和蓝天里得罪江泽民或者江泽民派系的人。广西书记陈刚是江泽民的扬州老乡，广西主席蓝天立传言是被抓了。山西省委书记唐登杰，我不知道是什么派系的。但是既然把山西省长金湘军抓了，那么唐登杰很可能不是习近平的人。不然，唐登杰也抓了。山西省委就瘫痪了。
唐登杰是上海官员出身，按照他们那种简单粗暴的划分方法，上海帮，就是江泽民的人。我说过没有上海帮，上海作为中国的最大的城市，第一政治高地，兵家必争之地。怎么可能只有一个派系的。但是既然唐登杰不是习近平的人，又是上海出身的官员，大概率也不是胡锦涛的人，就是江泽民的人。
如果陈刚和唐登杰都是江泽民的人，那么很明显，金湘军和蓝天立得罪江泽民了。金湘军这么明显有海航的背景，江泽民不收拾他才怪。江泽民不在，江绵恒还在，一样的。
这名网友说，
包总，能说说郭文贵吗？
我的回复是，郭文贵是江泽民的人。
当然还有一个背景就是李克强和习近平。
广西自治区2018年1月31日上午选举产生89名第十三届全国人大代表，中央提名的代表候选人李克强全票当选。
中共广西壮族自治区代表会议2022年4月21日至22日在南宁召开，在广西参选的党中央提名的代表候选人习近平以“全票当选”二十大代表。一开始李克强在广西当人大代表，后来是习近平在广西当党代表。
大家想，李克强为什么跑到广西当代表， 习近平为什么也跑到广西当代表。怎么都看上广西了。那就说明广西肯定有一个人是李克强的人。我说了刘宁跟着胡锦涛去汶川大地震救灾。现在刘宁是河南省委书记。李克强也曾经担任过河南省长，河南省委书记。那么习近平为什么跑到广西呢？那只能是蓝天立是习近平的人了。
但是这么说可能有点牵强。每个省都有两个三派系。我们看看这三个人关系就知道了。
2019-2022年，46岁的李文博任广西壮族壮族自治区河池市人民政府副市长、党组成员，市公安局党委书记、局长、督察长，市委政法委副书记（兼）。
2007年4月 – 2008年1月，45岁的蓝天立任广西壮族自治区河池市委副书记、副市长、代市长、市长。2007年7月，去代转正。
2008年1月 – 2011年11月，46岁的蓝天立任广西壮族自治区河池市委书记。
李文博和蓝天立都是出身与河池市。巧了不是。但是蓝天立是2011年离开河池市的。表面上是离开了。但是升任了广西副主席。李文博8年之后。2019年才去河池市的。但是李文博去河池市的时候的市委书记何辛幸，之前担任河池市长的时候曾经短暂和河池市委书记蓝天立搭档过几个月。还是有关系。
而李文博去河池市担任副市长公安局长之前呢。
2018年05月-2019年05月，李文博挂职任广西防城港市公安局党委委员、副局长，而金湘军（2014年1月 – 2018年1月）担任防城港市委书记。表面上也是没有交集。李文博去防城港市之前4个月，金湘军升任天津市副市长。但是金湘军和李文博都已经跑到一个地级市里面去了，前后只差4个月。就算表面上李文博和金湘军没有直接的联系。但是通过防城港市其他的官员，肯定也能扯上关系。
也就说是李文博把两个正部级官员，山西省长金湘军和广西主席蓝天立给串起来了。那现在金湘军抓了，李文博抓了。难道蓝天立还要独善其身吗？我们耐心等等官宣的消息吧。
所以不管说真的，还是是假的，给点原因。我给大家大概说了一下原因，为什么蓝天立被调查的传言，很可能是真的。
这名网友说，
新华社前所未有的报道，何立峰传达中国领导人问候，并转交了李强总理亲笔信，只字不提不提习近平。说明不是习近平主导的谈判，贸易战。刚打贸易战当天，我用六爻预测8月7号能谈判成功，8月7号之前不可能谈判成的，现在看应该预测准确了
这名网友说，
何立峰基本就一吉祥物，细节都是李成钢在谈，看发布会就知道了。
这名网友说，
是，中方發布會怪怪的，美方還把何立峰說成劉鶴了。
这名网友说，
看新华社对何立峰去瑞士报道只有国家领导人和李强，通篇没有十万克😅
我的回复是，这个不是前所未有。2025年3月21日，日本首相石破茂在东京会见到访的中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅。王毅向石破茂转达了中国领导人的问候，表示首相就任以来，中日两国重启双边关系改善进程。习近平主席同首相先生在利马成功会晤，一致同意全面推进中日战略互惠关系，为中日关系发展指明方向、注入动力。
当时的这个表述就挺奇怪的，也是中国领导人，但是后面又提习近平主席。那次表述有点模糊，这次何立峰的报道更狠，通篇就是不提习近平，连个影子都没有！
何立峰比王毅的说法更彻底。当地时间5月9日，瑞士联邦主席凯勒-祖特尔、联邦副主席帕姆兰在日内瓦会见国务院副总理何立峰。何立峰向凯勒-祖特尔转达中国领导人的问候，并转交李强总理亲署信。这次新华社干脆通篇不提习近平。
所以从种种的迹象表面，这次主导谈判的，的确不是习近平。何立峰连说一句‘习近平主席的问候’都那么难吗？”这点确实耐人寻味。
这个放在更大的背景去看，即便不说，军权崩塌的事情。就是说三大元素，习核心，习思想，二四四二。以前是开足了马力，可以复读好几遍。现在我天天拿着放大镜找，他们都不一定能把三大元素说全乎了，更不用说复读了。就说，何立峰说一句习近平的问候又能怎么了。但是，何立峰就是不说，再说也不一定是何立峰不说，也许何立峰说了，说了新华社，也不给何立峰发呀。
再说了何立峰现在的状态，政治局学习都能抬头看天。何立峰没准儿心说，你们谈判不谈判，关我屁事，我担心你们什么时候送我去秦城。何立峰这不是就直接让李成钢说吗？
第一个提问的新华社记者规规矩矩称“何副总理”，但提问时，李成钢和何立峰说了句悄悄话，提问结束后李成钢还瞟了何立峰一眼。李成钢“左手扶桌，蓄势待发”，像是憋不住要抢话筒了！何立峰直接把问题甩给李成钢：“想了解具体情况，请李成钢回答。”
第二个提问的央视记者更狠，直接不称呼“何副总理”或“李代表”，就说“请问”。网友分析，这记者可能看出何立峰不会答，冲着李成钢去的，但又怕称呼出错，干脆啥也不叫！这细节太有意思了，说明现场氛围已经暴露了谁才是“真老大”。
第三个提问的彭博社记者由主持人廖岷用英语接待，廖岷是习近平派系的人（刘明康的秘书，刘明康是贾庆林的秘书），但发布会全程还是李成钢在答问题，足足回答了三个问题！
何立峰的尴尬处境：
何立峰作为政治局委员、国务院副总理，级别高于李成钢（正部级），却只说了段开场白，之后全程“陪衬”。像“吉祥物”，和习近平现在的角色一样。中国一开始要派王文涛谈判。美国嫌弃级别太低。美方报道一度把何立峰误称成刘鹤（前副总理）。
李成钢的强势表现：
李成钢刚上任商务部国际贸易谈判代表，却在发布会上表现强势，回答问题时还说：“好饭不怕晚。”完全不像个新手。
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
Jiang’s lackeys want Xi to repent. Lan Tianli was dismissed immediately, Li Wenbo was dismissed, and they were involved in the Jinxiang Army case. Lin Xiangyang and He Weidong were removed from the Ministry of National Defense. He Lifeng officially announced Xi Jinping’s resignation
Hello everyone,
This netizen said that Guangxi government chairman Lan Tianli was investigated. Dabao analyzed the factions.
What is there to analyze. If he was arrested, he must be Xi Jinping’s lackey. Everyone just remember this sentence, when the nest is overturned, how can the eggs be intact? This is the words of an 8-year-old child, the son of Kong Rong. Greater China is always bragging about China. He has not learned even one tenth of the words of the ancestors. The 31st Army of the army was wiped out by Hu Jintao. Without the protection of the gun, aren’t Xi Jinping’s lackeys waiting to be arrested? Didn’t Chen Gang just say two days ago that Xi Jinping should wake up and change his past. It is better to turn back.
Do you still doubt Chen Gang’s strength? He is Jiang Zemin’s fellow villager in Yangzhou. Chen Gang said it on May 7, 2025. Five days later, Lan Tianli was arrested. This netizen said it was fake, this netizen said it was true, this is a child’s stubbornness, no matter it’s true or false, give a reason.
This netizen said, is it accurate? Didn’t go to the Standing Committee meeting, I heard that he flew directly to Beijing yesterday? True or false, really, why was he taken away? He was related to Shanxi Governor Jin Xiangjun, the previous head of the Organization Department was swapped, the people above were gone, Lan Tianli was Chen Xi’s man. Cai Qi is going to seize power. The previous ones are all good, the last sentence is nonsense, Cai Qi is also going to be arrested, and Cai Qi is still seizing power.
In fact, my title has been written very clearly. Shanxi Governor Jin Xiangjun was arrested, and Guangxi Political and Legal Affairs Commission Deputy Secretary Li Wenbo was arrested. If Lan Tianli has a close relationship with Jin Xiangjun and Li Wenbo. Then there are three people, and now two have been arrested. Does the third person still want to run? If Lan Tianli goes to Beijing, he will either surrender to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection or be taken away by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
These three people are all small fry. On May 12, 2025, according to the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision, Li Wenbo, deputy secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Party Committee, was suspected of serious violations of discipline and law and is currently under disciplinary review and supervision investigation by the Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision of the Autonomous Region. Li Wenbo is a bureau-level official, so it must have been arrested by Chen Gang. Chen Gang, who has just taken office for 5 months, has killed people to establish his authority. Chen Gang has already warned that he must repent and change his ways.
This matter may not really have much to do with Hu Jintao. It may be that Jin Xiangjun and Lan Tianli offended Jiang Zemin or people from Jiang Zemin’s faction. Guangxi Secretary Chen Gang is Jiang Zemin’s fellow villager in Yangzhou, and Guangxi Chairman Lan Tianli is rumored to have been arrested. I don’t know what faction Tang Dengjie, secretary of the Shanxi Provincial Party Committee, is from. But since Shanxi Governor Jin Xiangjun was arrested, Tang Dengjie is probably not Xi Jinping’s man. Otherwise, Tang Dengjie would have been arrested. The Shanxi Provincial Party Committee would have been paralyzed.
Tang Dengjie was born as an official in Shanghai. According to their simple and crude classification method, the Shanghai Gang is Jiang Zemin’s people. I have said that there is no Shanghai Gang. Shanghai is China’s largest city, the first political high ground, and a place of strategic importance. How could there be only one faction? But since Tang Dengjie is not Xi Jinping’s person and is an official from Shanghai, it is highly likely that he is not Hu Jintao’s person, but Jiang Zemin’s person.
If Chen Gang and Tang Dengjie are both Jiang Zemin’s people, then it is obvious that Jin Xiangjun and Lan Tianli have offended Jiang Zemin. It would be strange if Jiang Zemin did not deal with Jin Xiangjun, who obviously has the background of HNA. Jiang Zemin is gone, but Jiang Mianheng is still there, the same.
This netizen said,
Mr. Bao, can you talk about Guo Wengui?
My reply is that Guo Wengui is Jiang Zemin’s person.
Of course, there is another background, which is Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping.
On the morning of January 31, 2018, the Guangxi Autonomous Region elected 89 deputies to the 13th National People’s Congress, and Li Keqiang, the candidate nominated by the central government, was elected unanimously.
The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Representative Conference of the Communist Party of China was held in Nanning from April 21 to 22, 2022. Xi Jinping, the candidate nominated by the Party Central Committee who ran for election in Guangxi, was “unanimously elected” as a representative of the 20th National Congress. At first, Li Keqiang was a representative of the People’s Congress in Guangxi, and later Xi Jinping was a party representative in Guangxi.
Everyone thinks, why did Li Keqiang go to Guangxi as a representative, why did Xi Jinping also go to Guangxi as a representative. Why did they both like Guangxi? That means there must be someone in Guangxi who is Li Keqiang’s man. I said that Liu Ning followed Hu Jintao to the Wenchuan earthquake relief. Now Liu Ning is the Secretary of the Henan Provincial Party Committee. Li Keqiang has also served as the governor of Henan Province and the Secretary of the Henan Provincial Party Committee. So why did Xi Jinping go to Guangxi? That can only be that Lan Tianli is Xi Jinping’s man.
But it may be a bit far-fetched to say this. Every province has two or three factions. Let’s take a look at the relationship between these three people and we will know.
From 2019 to 2022, 46-year-old Li Wenbo served as deputy mayor and member of the Party Leadership Group of the People’s Government of Hechi City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, secretary of the Party Committee, director, inspector general of the Municipal Public Security Bureau, and deputy secretary of the Municipal Political and Legal Affairs Commission (concurrently).
From April 2007 to January 2008, 45-year-old Lan Tianli served as deputy secretary, deputy mayor, acting mayor, and mayor of Hechi City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. In July 2007, he was promoted from acting to full-time.
From January 2008 to November 2011, 46-year-old Lan Tianli served as secretary of the Hechi City Committee of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.
Li Wenbo and Lan Tianli were both born in Hechi City. It’s not a coincidence. But Lan Tianli left Hechi City in 2011. On the surface, he left. But he was promoted to vice chairman of Guangxi. Li Wenbo went to Hechi City 8 years later. In 2019. But when Li Wenbo went to Hechi City, He Xinxing, the party secretary, had worked with Lan Tianli, the party secretary of Hechi City, for a few months when he was the mayor of Hechi City. There is still a connection.
And before Li Wenbo went to Hechi City to serve as the deputy mayor and director of the Public Security Bureau.
From May 2018 to May 2019, Li Wenbo served as a member of the Party Committee and deputy director of the Public Security Bureau of Fangchenggang City, Guangxi, while Jin Xiangjun (January 2014-January 2018) served as the party secretary of Fangchenggang City. On the surface, there was no intersection. Four months before Li Wenbo went to Fangchenggang City, Jin Xiangjun was promoted to deputy mayor of Tianjin. But Jin Xiangjun and Li Wenbo had already gone to a prefecture-level city, with only a difference of four months. Even if Li Wenbo and Jin Xiangjun had no direct connection on the surface. But through other officials in Fangchenggang City, they must be related.
In other words, Li Wenbo linked two ministerial-level officials, Shanxi Governor Jin Xiangjun and Guangxi Chairman Lan Tianli. Now Jin Xiangjun has been arrested, Li Wenbo has been arrested. Does Lan Tianli still want to stay out of trouble? Let’s wait patiently for the official announcement.
So whether it is true or false, give some reasons. I have roughly told you the reasons why the rumors that Lan Tianli was investigated are likely to be true.
This netizen said,
Xinhua News Agency reported unprecedentedly that He Lifeng conveyed the greetings of Chinese leaders and handed over a handwritten letter from Premier Li Qiang, without mentioning Xi Jinping at all. This shows that the negotiations and trade war were not led by Xi Jinping. On the day when the trade war started, I used Liu Yao to predict that the negotiations would be successful on August 7, and it would be impossible to negotiate before August 7. Now it seems that the prediction should be accurate.
This netizen said,
He Lifeng is basically a mascot, and Li Chenggang is discussing the details. You will know after watching the press conference.
This netizen said,
Yes, the Chinese press conference was weird, and the US side also said He Lifeng was Liu He.
This netizen said,
Looking at the Xinhua News Agency’s report on He Lifeng’s visit to Switzerland, there are only national leaders and Li Qiang, and there is no 100,000 grams in the whole article😅
My reply is that this is not unprecedented. On March 21, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met with visiting member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tokyo. Wang Yi conveyed the greetings of the Chinese leaders to Shigeru Ishiba, saying that since the Prime Minister took office, China and Japan have restarted the process of improving bilateral relations. President Xi Jinping and the Prime Minister met successfully in Lima and agreed to comprehensively promote the strategic and mutually beneficial relationship between China and Japan, and to point out the direction and inject momentum for the development of China-Japan relations.
The statement at that time was quite strange. It was also a Chinese leader, but President Xi Jinping was mentioned later. That statement was a bit vague. This time He Lifeng’s report was even more ruthless. Xi Jinping was not mentioned in the whole article, not even a shadow!
He Lifeng’s statement was more thorough than Wang Yi’s. On May 9, local time, Swiss Federal President Keller-Sutter and Federal Vice President Pamran met with Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva. He Lifeng conveyed the greetings of the Chinese leaders to Keller-Sutter and handed over a letter signed by Premier Li Qiang. This time, Xinhua News Agency simply did not mention Xi Jinping at all.
So from all the signs, it is indeed not Xi Jinping who led the negotiations this time. Is it so difficult for He Lifeng to even say “Greetings from President Xi Jinping”? “This is indeed intriguing.
Look at this in a larger context, even if we don’t talk about the collapse of military power. That is to say, the three major elements, Xi core, Xi thought, two four four two. In the past, it was full of power and could be repeated several times. Now I look for it every day with a magnifying glass, and they may not be able to say all the three major elements, let alone repeat it. Let’s say, what’s wrong with He Lifeng saying Xi Jinping’s greetings. However, He Lifeng just didn’t say it. Besides, it doesn’t necessarily mean that He Lifeng didn’t say it. Maybe He Lifeng said it, and Xinhua News Agency didn’t send it to He Lifeng.
What about He Lifeng? In the current situation, the Politburo can even look up at the sky when studying. He Lifeng might have thought, whether you negotiate or not is none of my business, I am worried about when you will send me to Qincheng. Didn’t He Lifeng just let Li Chenggang speak directly?
The first Xinhua News Agency reporter who asked the question was politely called “Vice Premier He”, but when asking the question, Li Chenggang and He Lifeng whispered something, and after the question was finished, Li Chenggang glanced at He Lifeng. Li Chenggang “held the table with his left hand, ready to go”, as if he couldn’t hold back and wanted to grab the microphone! He Lifeng directly threw the question to Li Chenggang: “If you want to know the specific situation, please let Li Chenggang answer. ”
The second CCTV reporter who asked the question was even more ruthless. He did not address “Vice Premier He” or “Representative Li” directly, but just said “Excuse me”. Netizens analyzed that this reporter may have seen that He Lifeng would not answer, and went to Li Chenggang, but was afraid of addressing him wrongly, so he simply did not address him at all! This detail is so interesting, which shows that the atmosphere on the scene has exposed who is the “real boss”.
The third Bloomberg reporter who asked the question was received in English by the host Liao Min, who is from Xi Jinping’s faction (Liu Mingkang’s secretary, Liu Mingkang is Jia Qinglin’s secretary), but Li Chenggang was still answering questions throughout the press conference, answering a full 600 questions. Answered three questions!
He Lifeng’s embarrassing situation:
As a member of the Political Bureau and vice premier of the State Council, He Lifeng’s rank is higher than Li Chenggang (ministerial level), but he only gave an opening speech and then “accompanied” the whole time. Like a “mascot”, the same role as Xi Jinping now. China wanted to send Wang Wentao to negotiate at the beginning. The United States disliked that his rank was too low. The US report once mistakenly referred to He Lifeng as Liu He (former vice premier).
Li Chenggang’s strong performance:
Li Chenggang had just taken office as the international trade negotiator of the Ministry of Commerce, but he showed a strong performance at the press conference. When answering questions, he said: “Good food is not afraid of being late.” He doesn’t look like a novice at all.
OK, thank you everyone.
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