越南最早知道习近平下台的消息，替身访越还是在演戏？川普获得习近平下台秘密简报
越南最早知道习近平下台的消息，替身访越还是在演戏？川普获得习近平下台秘密简报
大家好，
越南作为中国的重要邻国和意识形态相近的共产党执政国家，可能通过独特的地缘政治关系和高层的党际交流，成为最早获悉习近平可能下台消息的国家。所以我们要复盘这个事情，看看根据后来发生的事实，能不能对当初越南最先知道习近平下台的消息，挖出更多的信息。
中国和越南两国自2008年建立全面战略合作伙伴关系以来，保持了频繁的高层互访和深厚的政治互信，尤其在党对党的沟通渠道上建立了紧密联系。这种特殊关系为越南提供了获取中国内部高层动态的潜在途径。2023年12月习近平访问越南，与时任越共总书记阮富仲达成构建“中越命运共同体”的共识，凸显了两国关系的亲密性。2024年8月，越共新任总书记苏林首次出访选择中国，进一步强化了双边战略沟通。这些高层互动为越南提供了了解中共内部变化的机会，尤其是在习近平可能因健康或其他原因导致权力不稳的敏感时刻。
2024年7月19日，越南官方发布了阮富仲去世的消息。奇怪的是，当天不仅习近平，就连总理李强、人大委员长赵乐际也都没有向越南发唁电，仅仅是以中共中央委员会的名义发了唁电。这是中国的重大外交事故，中国和越南都是党国。党大于国家。党的总书记权力远远大于国家主席，虽然这两个角色可能是由一个人扮演。这是所有共产主义国家通行的常识，共产主义的国家的权力就是这么运作的。
第二天，2024年7月20日，习近平前往越南驻华大使馆吊唁，但相关照片被外界质疑真实性，引发了习近平健康状况的猜测。因为习近平的签名签字，笔迹和之前的完全不一样，这个没法伪造，如果说当时去越南大使馆吊唁阮富仲的，不是习近平本人，而是替身的话。就有两种可能，一种是习近平当时重病在床，没法去越南大使馆，另外一种可能是，当时习近平正在被软禁。如果，去越南大使馆的是习近平本人的话，那么为什么这两个习近平的笔迹，自己不一样呢。
考虑到中越关系的紧密性，中共高层很可能通过非公开渠道向越共说明习近平的情况，以避免外交风波或误解。越南作为少数几个与中共保持意识形态一致的国家，越共高层对中共内部运作有很深的了解，可能因此获知习近平权力丧失大权的内幕。这种信息的传递符合两国党际关系的亲密性和长期以来的默契。
2024年10月李强和张又侠的访越进一步佐证了越南可能掌握中共高层秘密。李强作为总理，受到越方超乎寻常的高规格接待，李强是2024年10月12日至14日，访问越南的。越通社报道将李强视为中越合作的关键人物，而对同期习近平会见越南领导人梁强的报道明显淡化。这种报道差异可能反映了越共对中共权力结构的敏感认知。也就是说越南可能知道李强才是代理总书记。习近平已经成为了看守总书记等待下台。
张又侠作为军委副主席访越时，没有提及习近平，而是强调“两党、两国、两军传统友谊”，言辞中透露出不同寻常的信号。张又侠访问越南是2024年10月24日至26日。仅仅在李强访问越南10天之后。越南的军服都和中国这么相似。
越南对这两位高官的重视，表明其可能已通过前期沟通获悉中共内部的权力异动。越共在公开场合的谨慎措辞，比如越通社和外长裴青山提及苏林访华时使用“高层领导人”而没有直接点名习近平，进一步暗示越南知道习近平已经下台的内幕。
沙利文点名要见中共军委副主席张又侠的事件为越南的知情地位提供了间接支持。2024年8月27日至29日，美国国家安全顾问沙利文访华，特别要求会见张又侠，这是八年来美国国安顾问首次与中共军委副主席会面。自2016年后，中共严格限制中美军方高层接触，沙利文此举非同寻常。这个我给大家总结过，三中全会之后中共的外交政策已经大幅度转向。当然，这次贸易战可能中国的表现可能让所有人惊掉了下巴。这个我觉得不用着急，我们看热闹的，要静观的进一步发展。
至少贸易战目前打得这个状态，至少目前暂时这个状态。已经让所有真正反共的人，心里舒适了，无话可说。如果矛头对准全世界，激起反弹也可以。如果矛头对准了中国，那现在还支持中国，那不就是共匪，不就是共产党。
如果因为别的议题反对川普，那可以说是左翼立场。可是川普打击中国，对中国贸易战都反对，那这个人就是妥妥的大外宣，共产党啊。可以是就不是大外宣，就是共产党特务。
这名网友说，
川普不说习包子的事也是川普的政治智慧，中共黑箱是不可能说政变这样的事的，川普也不会捅破这个窗户纸，这是卖面子给这一届和下一届，这是川普的政治智慧。
我的回复是，我们天天说听床听床，川普是真的在听床，字面上在听床。川普真的在习包子床头装了窃听器啊，中情局对中国还没有点情报手段吗？
川普在2024年7月15日共和党全国代表大会上正式获得共和党总统候选人提名，因此，川普获得秘密简报的权限最有可能从这一时间点或稍后开始。
根据美国惯例，总统候选人在竞选期间获得的简报权限是临时的，仅限于竞选和过渡期，且内容通常不涉及最敏感的情报来源和方法。如果当选总统，比如川普于2024年11月5日赢得选举，川普作为总统当选人会在过渡期，2024年11月至2025年1月20日就职前，持续接收简报，直至正式就职后获得完整总统权限。川普作为第47任总统，自2025年1月20日就职后，拥有全面的秘密简报权限。
我给大家整理一下这个时间线
2024年7月15日，川普共和党全国代表大会上正式获得共和党总统候选人提名。
2024年7月20日，习近平前往越南驻华大使馆吊唁前越共总书记阮富仲。由于习近平的签名是假的，因此可能是一个假的习近平。
2024年7月19日 – 8月3日，苏林代理越共总书记，2024年8月3日苏林正式就任越共总书记
2024年8月18日至20日，越共中央总书记、国家主席苏林去中国进行国事访问。
2024年8月27日至29日，美国国家安全顾问沙利文访华，特别要求，点名要求会见张又侠。
2024年10月12日至14日，李强访问越南。
2024年10月24日至26日，张又侠访问越南。
2025年3月11日，二会闭幕式上，张又侠没有给习近平转身。
我从这个时间线上看，越共总书记苏林正式就任总书记之后15天就访华了。苏林访华之后7天沙利文就访华了。也就是说，越南方面知道习近平下台的消息之后在第一时间就访华了。苏林是一个国事访问，安排了半个月，沙利文是一个工作访问，就安排了一个礼拜。越共总书记苏林访华之后，确认习近平已经下台，回到越南之后第一时间就是通知了美国。沙利文是美国国家安全顾问，说白了就是美国的情报头子。
美国国家情报总监（DNI）是美国国家情报体系的负责人，直接掌管国家情报总监办公室，并向总统汇报情报工作。国家情报总监参与国家安全委员会和国土安全委员会的工作，并向总统提交整合多机构信息来源的最高机密“总统每日简报”情报文件。
美国总统国家安全顾问（NSA），其主要职责是向总统提供国家安全事务的建议，并协调国家安全政策的制定和执行。
虽然美国国家情报总监是向总统直接汇报工作，但是按照工作分工，很明显国家安全顾问，是国家情报总监事实上的上级。不可能什么事情都一杆子捅到总统那儿，总有个分工吧。
沙利文才是真正的听床好不好，沙利文才是真正在习近平床头装了一个窃听器偷听。
二会的时候，张又侠没有给习近平转身，就说明沙利文7月前就已经知道习近平下台了。要么沙利文为什么要点名见张又侠呢。
美国需要知道中国的核按钮掌握在谁的手中。2024年8月27日，沙利文访华，知道习近平下台了。2024年7月15日，川普获得美国共和党总统候选人提名。沙利文访华之前1个月，川普获得了听取秘密简报的权限，除非拜登使坏。不然的话，沙利文访华探听到了习近平下台的消息，肯定已经给川普做了秘密简报。
川普一天到晚嚷嚷着蔡奇去美国的，蔡奇去没有去那不是没去吗？川普嚷嚷着给习近平，那不是也取消了吗？川普都是演戏，川普这点情商都没有吗？秘密情报川普怎么可能会公开呢？该说什么不该说什么，难道真的一点儿数都没有吗？
2024年7月以来，中共政局传闻不断，包括三中全会期间习近平公众露面减少、《改革家习近平》文章下架等，引发外界对习近平健康和权力的猜测。张又侠作为军方关键人物，已经公开与习近平翻脸。沙利文点名见张又侠，表明美国可能已通过情报渠道获悉习近平已经下台的情报，而越南作为中共的亲密盟友，可能更早通过越南和中国党际交往渠道捕捉到这一情报。越共对李强、张又侠访越的高规格接待，显示越共对中共权力动态的敏锐洞察，可能早于美国获得相关内幕。
越南的地缘政治立场也为越南获取中共高层信息提供了有利条件。作为在中美之间采取“竹子外交”的国家，越南既与美国、日本深化关系，又与中国保持密切联系，尤其在经济上高度依赖中国，2024年中越贸易额超2000亿美元。这种平衡策略要求越南对中国的政治动态保持高度敏感，以调整自身外交布局。美国国家安全顾问沙利文已经用实际行动背书了，越南情报的准确性。要不然沙利文专程去北京干吗呢？难道是为了去吃北京烤鸭吗？
2025年4月习近平访越前，中共强调“周边是中国外交的优先方向”，而越南提出管控东海分歧、避免影响双边关系大局。这表明越南可能利用对中共内部情况的了解，在谈判中占据主动。越共对习近平访越的高规格准备，表面上是外交配合，实际上可能掩盖越共对中共权力变化的知情。这种知情地位可能源于越南在2024年7月阮富仲去世后，与中共高层的非公开沟通。
中越党际关系的特殊性为越南获取敏感信息提供了保障。两国共产党在组织结构、执政理念上高度相似，长期通过党校交流、干部培训等渠道分享经验。这种机制可能成为非正式信息传递的途径，尤其在中共高层出现不稳定信号时。2024年7月三中全会期间，习近平丧失大权的消息可能通过这些渠道传至越南高层。
越共在公开报道中避免直接提及习近平的健康或权力问题，显示其越南愿意配合中共维持表面稳定，但私下可能已对中共高层的潜在变动有所准备。这种默契符合两国在意识形态和地缘政治上的共同利益，也解释了为何越南能在沙利文访华前，就对中共权力结构的变化有所感知。
总之，越南凭借与中共的深厚党际关系、频繁高层互动以及地缘政治的敏感性，可能成为最早知晓习近平可能下台消息的国家。阮富仲去世事件引发的外交异常、李强与张又侠访越的特殊信号，以及越共在报道中的谨慎措辞，都指向越南对中共高层动态的了解。沙利文点名会见张又侠，表明美国在2024年8月，通过综合的情报判断捕捉到习近平权力不稳的迹象，而越南可能早在7月已通过党际渠道获悉相关信息。而川普毫无疑问已经获得了沙利文的秘密情报简报，别把政治人物的表演太当真。等到习近平四中全会正式下台，我们再复盘就能知道川普是不是在演戏。
越南在中美博弈中的平衡角色，使其对中共内部动态格外关注，而党际渠道为其提供了独特的信息窗口，这次习近平访问越南我们需要重点观察越南的反应。
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
Vietnam was the first to know about Xi Jinping’s resignation. Was it a stand-in’s visit to Vietnam or just a show? Trump received a secret briefing on Xi Jinping’s resignation
Hello everyone,
As an important neighbor of China and a communist-ruled country with similar ideologies, Vietnam may have become the first country to learn about Xi Jinping’s possible resignation through unique geopolitical relations and high-level party-to-party exchanges. So we have to review this matter and see if we can dig out more information about Vietnam’s first knowledge of Xi Jinping’s resignation based on the facts that happened later.
Since the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2008, China and Vietnam have maintained frequent high-level visits and deep political mutual trust, especially in the party-to-party communication channels. This special relationship provides Vietnam with a potential way to obtain high-level dynamics within China. In December 2023, Xi Jinping visited Vietnam and reached a consensus with then-General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong on building a “China-Vietnam community of shared destiny”, highlighting the closeness of the relationship between the two countries. In August 2024, the new General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Su Lin chose China for his first visit, further strengthening bilateral strategic communication. These high-level interactions provide Vietnam with an opportunity to understand changes within the CCP, especially at a sensitive time when Xi Jinping may be destabilized by power due to health or other reasons.
On July 19, 2024, the Vietnamese government announced the death of Nguyen Phu Trong. Strangely, not only Xi Jinping, but also Prime Minister Li Qiang and NPC Chairman Zhao Leji did not send condolences to Vietnam that day, but only sent condolences in the name of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. This is a major diplomatic accident for China. Both China and Vietnam are party-states. The party is greater than the state. The power of the general secretary of the party is far greater than that of the president, although these two roles may be played by one person. This is common sense in all communist countries. This is how power in communist countries works.
The next day, July 20, 2024, Xi Jinping went to the Vietnamese Embassy in China to pay condolences, but the authenticity of the relevant photos was questioned by the outside world, triggering speculation about Xi Jinping’s health. Because Xi Jinping’s signature and handwriting are completely different from the previous ones, this cannot be forged. If it was not Xi Jinping himself who went to the Vietnamese Embassy to pay condolences to Nguyen Phu Trong, but a substitute. There are two possibilities. One is that Xi Jinping was seriously ill at the time and could not go to the Vietnamese Embassy. The other possibility is that Xi Jinping was under house arrest at the time. If it was Xi Jinping himself who went to the Vietnamese Embassy, then why are the handwritings of these two Xi Jinpings different?
Considering the closeness of Sino-Vietnamese relations, the top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party are likely to explain Xi Jinping’s situation to the Vietnamese Communist Party through non-public channels to avoid diplomatic turmoil or misunderstandings. As one of the few countries that maintains ideological consistency with the Chinese Communist Party, the top leaders of the Vietnamese Communist Party have a deep understanding of the internal operations of the Chinese Communist Party and may have learned the inside story of Xi Jinping’s loss of power. The transmission of this information is in line with the intimacy and long-standing tacit understanding between the two parties.
The visit of Li Qiang and Zhang Youxia to Vietnam in October 2024 further proves that Vietnam may have mastered the secrets of the top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party. As the prime minister, Li Qiang received an unusually high-level reception from the Vietnamese side. Li Qiang visited Vietnam from October 12 to 14, 2024. The Vietnam News Agency reported that Li Qiang was regarded as a key figure in Sino-Vietnamese cooperation, while the report of Xi Jinping’s meeting with Vietnamese leader Luong Cuong during the same period was significantly downplayed. This difference in reporting may reflect the CPV’s sensitive perception of the CCP’s power structure. In other words, Vietnam may know that Li Qiang is the acting general secretary. Xi Jinping has become the caretaker general secretary waiting to step down.
When Zhang Youxia visited Vietnam as the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, he did not mention Xi Jinping, but emphasized the “traditional friendship between the two parties, the two countries, and the two militaries”, revealing unusual signals in his words. Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam was from October 24 to 26, 2024. Just 10 days after Li Qiang’s visit to Vietnam. Vietnam’s military uniforms are so similar to those of China.
Vietnam’s attention to these two senior officials indicates that it may have learned about the power changes within the CCP through previous communication. The CPV’s cautious wording in public, such as the use of “senior leaders” by VNA and Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son when referring to To Lin’s visit to China instead of directly naming Xi Jinping, further implies that Vietnam knows the inside story that Xi Jinping has stepped down.
Sullivan’s request to meet with Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, provides indirect support for Vietnam’s informed status. From August 27 to 29, 2024, US National Security Advisor Sullivan visited China and specifically requested to meet with Zhang Youxia. This was the first time in eight years that a US National Security Advisor met with the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China. Since 2016, the Communist Party of China has strictly restricted high-level military contacts between China and the United States. Sullivan’s move was unusual. I have summarized this for everyone. After the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the foreign policy of the Communist Party of China has shifted significantly. Of course, China’s performance in this trade war may surprise everyone. I don’t think there is a need to rush. We are just watching the excitement and need to wait and see further developments.
At least the trade war is currently in this state, at least for the time being. It has made all the truly anti-communist people feel comfortable and have nothing to say. If the spearhead is directed at the whole world, it can also provoke a backlash. If the spearhead is directed at China, then if you still support China now, then you are not a communist bandit, not the Communist Party.
If you oppose Trump because of other issues, it can be said to be a left-wing position. But Trump attacks China and opposes the trade war with China. This person is a complete foreign propaganda, the Communist Party. It can be that it is not a big foreign propaganda, but a Communist spy.
This netizen said,
Trump’s failure to mention Xi Jinping’s affairs is also Trump’s political wisdom. The CCP’s black box is impossible to say such a coup, and Trump will not break this window paper. This is to sell face to this and the next term. This is Trump’s political wisdom.
My reply is that we say listening to the bed every day, and Trump is really listening to the bed, literally listening to the bed. Trump really installed a bug at the head of Xi Jinping’s bed. Doesn’t the CIA have any intelligence means for China?
Trump officially won the Republican presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention on July 15, 2024. Therefore, Trump’s access to secret briefings is most likely to start from this point in time or later.
According to US practice, the briefing rights obtained by presidential candidates during the campaign are temporary, limited to the campaign and transition period, and the content usually does not involve the most sensitive intelligence sources and methods. If elected president, for example, Trump wins the election on November 5, 2024, Trump, as the president-elect, will continue to receive briefings during the transition period, from November 2024 to January 20, 2025, before taking office, until he obtains full presidential authority after he officially takes office. As the 47th president, Trump has full secret briefing authority since he takes office on January 20, 2025.
Let me sort out this timeline for everyone
On July 15, 2024, Trump was officially nominated as the Republican presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention.
On July 20, 2024, Xi Jinping went to the Vietnamese Embassy in China to pay tribute to former General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong. Since Xi Jinping’s signature is fake, it may be a fake Xi Jinping.
July 19-August 3, 2024, Su Lin served as acting General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, and Su Lin officially took office as General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam on August 3, 2024
From August 18 to 20, 2024, Su Lin, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam and President of the State, went to China for a state visit.
From August 27 to 29, 2024, US National Security Advisor Sullivan visited China and specifically requested to meet Zhang Youxia.
From October 12 to 14, 2024, Li Qiang visited Vietnam.
From October 24 to 26, 2024, Zhang Youxia visited Vietnam.
On March 11, 2025, at the closing ceremony of the Second Session, Zhang Youxia did not turn around for Xi Jinping.
From this timeline, Su Lin, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, visited China 15 days after he officially took office as General Secretary. Sullivan visited China 7 days after Su Lin visited China. That is to say, Vietnam visited China as soon as it knew that Xi Jinping had stepped down. To Lin was on a state visit, which was arranged for half a month, while Sullivan was on a working visit, which was arranged for a week. After To Lin, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, visited China, he confirmed that Xi Jinping had stepped down, and notified the United States as soon as he returned to Vietnam. Sullivan is the US National Security Advisor, or in other words, the head of US intelligence.
The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) is the head of the US National Intelligence System, directly in charge of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and reports intelligence work to the President. The Director of National Intelligence participates in the work of the National Security Council and the Homeland Security Council, and submits to the President the top-secret “President’s Daily Brief” intelligence document that integrates information sources from multiple agencies.
The main responsibility of the US President’s National Security Advisor (NSA) is to provide advice to the President on national security affairs and coordinate the formulation and implementation of national security policies.
Although the Director of National Intelligence reports directly to the President, according to the division of labor, it is obvious that the National Security Advisor is the de facto superior of the Director of National Intelligence. It is impossible to push everything to the President, there must be a division of labor.
Sullivan is the one who really eavesdropped on Xi Jinping’s bed.
During the two sessions, Zhang Youxia did not turn around for Xi Jinping, which means that Sullivan knew that Xi Jinping had stepped down before July. Otherwise, why did Sullivan specifically ask to see Zhang Youxia?
The United States needs to know who holds China’s nuclear button. On August 27, 2024, Sullivan visited China and learned that Xi Jinping had stepped down. On July 15, 2024, Trump was nominated as the Republican presidential candidate. One month before Sullivan’s visit to China, Trump was granted the right to listen to secret briefings, unless Biden did something bad. Otherwise, Sullivan visited China and learned about Xi Jinping’s resignation, and he must have given Trump a secret briefing.
Trump kept shouting that Cai Qi went to the United States. If Cai Qi didn’t go, then he didn’t go? Trump shouted that it was for Xi Jinping, but didn’t it also cancel it? Trump is just acting. Doesn’t Trump have any emotional intelligence? How could Trump make secret intelligence public? What should be said and what should not be said, is there really no idea at all?
Since July 2024, there have been constant rumors about the political situation of the Communist Party of China, including Xi Jinping’s reduced public appearances during the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee and the removal of the article “Reformer Xi Jinping”, which has aroused speculation about Xi Jinping’s health and power. As a key figure in the military, Zhang Youxia has publicly turned against Xi Jinping. Sullivan’s name to meet Zhang Youxia indicates that the United States may have learned about Xi Jinping’s resignation through intelligence channels, and Vietnam, as a close ally of the Communist Party of China, may have captured this intelligence earlier through the inter-party exchanges between Vietnam and China. The high-level reception of Li Qiang and Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam by the Communist Party of Vietnam shows that the Communist Party of Vietnam has a keen insight into the power dynamics of the Communist Party of China, and may have obtained relevant inside information earlier than the United States.
Vietnam’s geopolitical position also provides favorable conditions for Vietnam to obtain information from the top leaders of the Communist Party of China. As a country that adopts “bamboo diplomacy” between China and the United States, Vietnam has deepened relations with the United States and Japan, and maintained close ties with China, especially in economic dependence on China. In 2024, the trade volume between China and Vietnam exceeded US$200 billion. This balancing strategy requires Vietnam to be highly sensitive to China’s political dynamics in order to adjust its own diplomatic layout. US National Security Advisor Sullivan has endorsed the accuracy of Vietnam’s intelligence with practical actions. Otherwise, why did Sullivan make a special trip to Beijing? Was it to eat Peking duck?
Before Xi Jinping’s visit to Vietnam in April 2025, the CCP emphasized that “the surrounding areas are the priority direction of China’s diplomacy”, while Vietnam proposed to control the differences in the East Sea and avoid affecting the overall situation of bilateral relations. This shows that Vietnam may take the initiative in the negotiations by using its understanding of the internal situation of the CCP. The high-level preparations of the Vietnamese Communist Party for Xi Jinping’s visit to Vietnam are diplomatic cooperation on the surface, but in fact may conceal the Vietnamese Communist Party’s knowledge of the power changes in the CCP. This informed status may be due to Vietnam’s non-public communication with the top leaders of the CCP after Nguyen Phu Trong’s death in July 2024.
The particularity of the inter-party relations between China and Vietnam provides a guarantee for Vietnam to obtain sensitive information. The two Communist Parties are highly similar in organizational structure and governing philosophy, and have long shared experiences through channels such as party school exchanges and cadre training. This mechanism may become a channel for informal information transmission, especially when there are signs of instability in the top leadership of the CCP. During the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in July 2024, the news that Xi Jinping had lost power may have reached the Vietnamese top leaders through these channels.
The CPV avoided directly mentioning Xi Jinping’s health or power issues in public reports, indicating that Vietnam was willing to cooperate with the CPC to maintain superficial stability, but privately may have been prepared for potential changes in the CPC’s top leadership. This tacit understanding is in line with the common ideological and geopolitical interests of the two countries, and also explains why Vietnam was able to sense the changes in the CPC’s power structure before Sullivan’s visit to China.
In short, Vietnam, with its deep party-to-party relations with the CPC, frequent high-level interactions, and geopolitical sensitivity, may have become the first country to know that Xi Jinping might step down. The diplomatic anomaly caused by Nguyen Phu Trong’s death, the special signals of Li Qiang and Zhang Youxia’s visit to Vietnam, and the cautious wording of the CPV in the report all point to Vietnam’s understanding of the dynamics of the CPC’s top leadership. Sullivan’s specific meeting with Zhang Youxia indicates that the United States captured signs of Xi Jinping’s unstable power in August 2024 through comprehensive intelligence judgments, and Vietnam may have learned relevant information through party-to-party channels as early as July. Trump has undoubtedly received Sullivan’s secret intelligence briefing. Don’t take the performance of politicians too seriously. When Xi Jinping officially steps down at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, we will know whether Trump is acting.
Vietnam’s balancing role in the Sino-US game makes it pay special attention to the internal dynamics of the Communist Party of China, and the inter-party channel provides it with a unique information window. This time when Xi Jinping visits Vietnam, we need to focus on observing Vietnam’s reaction.
Okay, thank you everyone.
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