人日吹捧，胡春华接班习近平概率99%。金人庆秘书车志敏被抓。习近平刚去丽江，就打脸习把丽江顾问车志敏抓了
人日吹捧，胡春华接班习近平概率99%。金人庆秘书车志敏被抓。习近平刚去丽江，就打脸习把丽江顾问车志敏抓了
大家好，这名网友说，大包能讲一下中国发改委财政金融司司长陈洪宛。
我的回复是怎么什么都问我，还白嫖呢？中国正局级有4万个。我认识陈洪宛是谁啊？收费，怎么还白嫖呢
我知道我也不告诉你。你们公司给他送钱了，是不是要发行债券，害怕他被抓了，行贿的钱打水漂了。愿赌服输，钱该送送，陈洪宛如果抓了就认倒霉啊。把我当什么了，把我当成免费字典在这里查呢，我找谁查去呢呢？请问我一些好问题，正经的问题。
问我一些权力斗争核心的问题，总书记和总理的问题。一把手和二把手的问题。和中国政坛走向，大趋势有关系的问题。
这名网友问的特别好，大包聊一下关于车志敏落马及其部署，中央第六巡视组进驻云南。中央巡视组将紧盯权力和责任。紧盯一把手和领导班子，紧盯权力反应强烈的问题，着力查找政治偏差，推动解决突出问题，为推动中国式现代化提供有力保障。这条新闻的内容分析一下吧。我查了推动中国式现代化最早是邓小平提出的。但又有新闻说是习近平首次提出。如果查云南又把习近平的口号搞出来，风向到底是怎样的，恳请详解。
风向就是抓习近平的马仔这还有什么怀疑的吗？
我是了这就是反查字典，就是拿着一本英汉字典，在这里查汉语意思。让胡锦涛去抓一个人，就全部明白了。一个车志敏，我就能给大家把云南官员，习近平马仔全都给揪出来。
就是胡锦涛一公布答案，我就知道他想干吗了。我直接给大家开名单，如果懂云南官场，就知道这些人全部都是习近平马仔。就是要团灭。胡锦涛有没有这本事我就不知道了。应该也不会都抓。但是我提到的这些人都有可能抓。
这就是2021年北戴河会议的延长战。这都未必是胡锦涛要抓，可能是曾庆红要抓。曾庆红当中组部长的时候，往云南塞了正局级官员，我没有说过。周永康在云南也有人，没准儿是曾庆红在替周永康报仇呢。
一个中组部长的权力边界是正局级或者二线的副部级，省人大副主任或者省政协副主席。副省长省委常委往上，不是一个中组部长这样的小马仔能决定的。起码要政治局常委。总书记和总理我这是简化模型，一个普通的政治局常委，提拔正部级费劲，提拔个副部级应该还行吧。就举这个例子，李长春的铁杆马仔于均波都没有提拔一线的正部级提拔一个北京市人大常委会主任，这样一个二线的正部级。李长春和蔡奇王岐山的排名差不多。普通常委的权力和总书记总理差远了。这都是常识。
车志敏
金人庆
秦光荣
丁绍祥
李石松
程映萱
刘平
徐荣凯
罗正富
8个人
两个省长，一个省委书记，一个财政部长。其余都是副省长。基本把云南官场要一网打尽。一锅端了。所以为什么要抓车志敏，他背后这么多老大，能不抓他吗？
所以只是我们自己在这里猜，没用，让胡锦涛抓一个人，我们就全看明白了。就是胡锦涛把车志敏一抓我就能帮大家把云南全给大家看明白，说清楚。
我们就简化模型，江泽民已经死了，这个是对于胡锦涛或者习近平而言，只是一个游戏而已。胡锦涛每月只能抓10个人，副部级以上的。资源是有限的，中纪委的人数是有限的，即便是借调地方的纪委的人手，那总有一个上限。不可能都抓了。
抓谁不抓谁，被抓的官员怎么那么倒霉呢？除非胡锦涛或习近平打出了一手臭牌，这也是很有可能的。这个网友的观点特别好，对于我特别有启发性。他说抓人的进度为什么慢下来了呢？不可能慢下来呀，肯定是有原因的。去年中管干部被查58人，又是8。怎么就那么巧呢，胡锦涛是不是有强迫症就喜欢8。当时实际上被中纪委查处的不止58个人，应该是92个，也就是有34个没有公布。应该就是少将中将上将。
所以为什么慢下来，他的抓人资源被调配到抓军队的将军了中将少将，不公布，黑箱操作，所以感觉好像是慢下来了。查一名官员需要3到6个月，如果进度慢下来，有可能是对应着去年11月把苗华抓了，还有若干中将少将一锅端了，又不公布。我只能说是猜测是这种原因。
按照35岁正部级定律，总书记不是是个人就提拔。中国4万人正局级，最多1000个人在总书记的shortlist。但是胡锦涛的名单不能告诉习近平，习近平的名单也不能告诉胡锦涛，不然就被对方抓走了。所以我是这只不过是两个人一场博弈的游戏而已。
车志敏就是金人庆的秘书。当然1980年代，很难找到资料了。
车志敏1985年8月-1989年6月为正处级秘书，金人庆1985年4月 – 1991年8月为副省长，1987年3月起，金人庆兼财政厅厅长。金人庆1985年4月上任副省长，车志敏1985年8月升正处级秘书，两者时间高度重叠（1985年8月-1989年6月）。1980年代的资料，很难找到。
但是当时云南省一共只有六七个副省长，车志敏肯定是某个云南省副省长的秘书。是谁不知道。金人庆当上副省长4个月，车志敏升任正处级秘书。
云南2003-2008年GDP排名全国倒数，财政自给率低，依赖中央转移支付（《中国财政年鉴》2003-2008）。2005年，云南获得中央转移支付约500亿元，占财政收入的60%，用于旅游（香格里拉）、基础设施（滇缅管道）、水电等。
车志敏同志在担任省政府研究室主任、省政府副秘书长，省政协秘书长期间在打造“香格里拉”品牌，开发澜沧江湄公河，滇缅石油管道项目，两强一堡建设，推动珠宝玉石产业发展等方面作出了积极的，卓有成效的贡献。
就是云南特别穷，需要中央财政的转移支付，云南财政60%的钱都来源于中央财政转移支付。车志敏担任云南省政府副秘书长，就是给某个云南副省长当大秘。可能是秦光荣和刘平。刘平确定，秦光荣不太确定。
2007年06月05日，云南省人民政府副秘书长、省人民政府发展研究中心主任、论坛第一次会议执行主席车志敏代表副省长刘平在滇缅经济贸易合作论坛第一次会议开幕式上致词。
就是车志敏给副省长当大秘的时候，金人庆正是中国的财政部长。云南省又有60%的财政收入要靠着中国财政部，部长就是金人庆。金人庆就是朱镕基的铁杆马仔，大外宣天天洗地的，烦死了，证据摆在这里。秦光荣就是湖南人。秦光荣都分析多少遍了。
所以我给大家一点一点拼凑出来，2021年北戴河会议的真相。
2021年7月，周洪许被任命为中央警卫局局长。当然了，中央警卫局这么特殊的部门不是一个局长就能完全控制的。
2021年8月21日，周江勇被抓。就是开北戴河会议的中间习近平不服，江泽民就让赵乐际把习近平亲手提拔的象山县委书记，周江勇抓了。
2021年8月28日，北戴河会议结束的这一天，姜春云/金人庆/张育军在同一天死了。
北戴河会议结束之后。省委书记省长大调整，习近平实力受损，但是并没有伤筋动骨。还保存了实力。但是江泽民和胡锦涛的实力也上涨了。
云南省委第一任书记就是宋任穷。
宋任穷担任中组部长，向陈云推荐熊清泉担任中央候补委员，
熊清泉是朱镕基的中学同学，朱镕基的湖南老乡。
熊清泉是湖南习近平派系的教父。熊清泉提拔的秦光荣
秦光荣陪着薄熙来在云南滇池喂海鸥
薄熙来唱红打黑总后台就是朱镕基。
凡是说薄熙来和习近平是政敌的，这都是大外宣发明的左右互博洗地术。
熊清泉中学和朱镕基是一个宿舍的同学。
秦光荣去云南当党委书记。第一任云南省委书记宋任穷和第11任云南省委书记秦光荣的逻辑关系我们找到了。
车志敏给云南副省长刘平当大秘，刘平之前又是云南省政府秘书长。是云南省长徐荣凯（2001年6月1日 – 2006年11月6日）的大秘。
2008年1月 – 2016年1月，54岁的车志敏任云南省政协党组成员、秘书长，办公厅党组书记。车志敏在云南省政协给云南政协主席罗正富（2012年3月－2018年1月）当大秘。
总结就是车志敏曾经给云南副省长金人庆当秘书，金人庆后来是中国财政部长，朱镕基提拔的。
程映萱是金人庆担任云南副省长兼任财政厅长的财政厅副厅长，后来程映萱是副省长。
车志敏曾经给云南副省长秦光荣当大秘，秦光荣的大秘是丁绍祥，丁绍祥的大秘是李石松。李石松已经抓了。
车志敏曾经给云南副省长刘平当大秘，刘平给云南省长徐荣凯当大秘。
车志敏曾经给云南政协主席罗正富当大秘。
车志敏为什么这么牛呢，就因为金人庆是中国的财政部长，掌握财政大权，以及金人庆背后的朱镕基是中国的二把手。抓了车志敏就等于把云南官场一锅端了。这些人应该不会都抓了。但是抓了车志敏这些人就瑟瑟发抖了。
这名网友说
大包，几个博主说胡春华接总书记概率到99%了！然后日人民报开始吹捧共青团。这些都是不寻常的迹象。
我的回复，可能是借着所谓的五四青年节。
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
People’s Daily boasts that Hu Chunhua has a 99% chance of succeeding Xi Jinping. Che Zhimin, secretary of Jin Renqing, was arrested. Xi Jinping just went to Lijiang and slapped Xi in the face for arresting Lijiang consultant Che Zhimin.
Hello everyone, this netizen said, can Dabao talk about Chen Hongwan, director of the Finance and Finance Department of the National Development and Reform Commission of China.
My reply is, how come you ask me everything, and you still do it for free? There are 40,000 bureau-level officials in China. Who do I know Chen Hongwan? He charges money, how can he do it for free?
I know, but I won’t tell you. Your company gave him money. Are you going to issue bonds? Are you afraid that he will be arrested and the bribe money will be wasted. If you are willing to accept the loss, the money should be given. If Chen Hongwan is arrested, just admit your bad luck. What do you think of me? You think I am a free dictionary and you are looking me up here. Who can I look up? Please ask me some good questions, serious questions.
Ask me some questions about the core of the power struggle, the general secretary and the prime minister. The first and second in command. Questions related to the direction and general trend of China’s political arena.
This netizen asked a very good question. Let’s talk about Che Zhimin’s fall and his deployment. The Sixth Central Inspection Team entered Yunnan. The Central Inspection Team will keep a close eye on power and responsibility. Keep a close eye on the top leaders and leadership teams, keep a close eye on issues that react strongly to power, focus on finding political deviations, promote the resolution of outstanding issues, and provide strong guarantees for promoting Chinese-style modernization. Let’s analyze the content of this news. I checked and found that the earliest proposal to promote Chinese-style modernization was made by Deng Xiaoping. But there are news reports that it was first proposed by Xi Jinping. If you check Yunnan and find Xi Jinping’s slogan, what is the wind direction? Please explain in detail.
Is there any doubt that the wind direction is to catch Xi Jinping’s lackeys?
I know that this is a reverse dictionary lookup, that is, holding an English-Chinese dictionary, and looking up the Chinese meaning here. Let Hu Jintao catch one person, and everything will be clear. With Che Zhimin, I can catch all the Yunnan officials and Xi Jinping’s lackeys for everyone.
As soon as Hu Jintao announced the answer, I knew what he wanted to do. I will directly give you a list. If you understand the Yunnan officialdom, you will know that these people are all Xi Jinping’s lackeys. They want to wipe them out. I don’t know if Hu Jintao has the ability to do this. He probably won’t arrest all of them. But all of the people I mentioned are likely to be arrested.
This is the extended battle of the Beidaihe meeting in 2021. It may not be Hu Jintao who wants to arrest them, but Zeng Qinghong. When Zeng Qinghong was the head of the Organization Department, he stuffed a bureau-level official into Yunnan, but I didn’t say anything. Zhou Yongkang also had people in Yunnan, maybe Zeng Qinghong was avenging Zhou Yongkang.
The power boundary of a head of the Organization Department is the bureau-level or the second-line vice-ministerial level, the deputy director of the Provincial People’s Congress or the vice chairman of the Provincial Political Consultative Conference. The deputy governor and the provincial party committee standing committee member are not something that a small fry like the head of the Organization Department can decide. At least they must be members of the Politburo Standing Committee. I am simplifying the model of the general secretary and the prime minister. It is difficult for an ordinary member of the Politburo Standing Committee to be promoted to the ministerial level, but it should be okay to promote a vice-ministerial level. Take this example. Li Changchun’s staunch henchman Yu Junbo did not promote a first-line ministerial level official, but promoted a second-line ministerial level official, the chairman of the Standing Committee of the Beijing Municipal People’s Congress. Li Changchun and Cai Qi and Wang Qishan are ranked similarly. The power of ordinary Standing Committee members is far less than that of the general secretary and the premier. This is common sense.
Che Zhimin
Jin Renqing
Qin Guangrong
Ding Shaoxiang
Li Shisong
Cheng Yingxuan
Liu Ping
Xu Rongkai
Luo Zhengfu
8 people
Two provincial governors, one provincial party secretary, and one finance minister. The rest are vice governors. Basically, the Yunnan officialdom is going to be caught in one fell swoop. All in one pot. So why arrest Che Zhimin? With so many bosses behind him, how can we not arrest him?
So it’s useless for us to guess here. Let Hu Jintao arrest one person, and we will see everything clearly. If Hu Jintao arrests Che Zhimin, I can help everyone see and explain Yunnan clearly.
Let’s simplify the model. Jiang Zemin is dead. This is just a game for Hu Jintao or Xi Jinping. Hu Jintao can only arrest 10 people per month, above the vice-ministerial level. Resources are limited, the number of people in the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is limited, even if the personnel are seconded to the local Commission for Discipline Inspection, there is always a limit. It is impossible to arrest everyone.
Who to arrest and who not to arrest, why are the officials so unlucky? Unless Hu Jintao or Xi Jinping plays a bad hand, which is also very likely. This netizen’s point of view is very good and very inspiring to me. He asked why the progress of arresting people has slowed down? It is impossible to slow down, there must be a reason. Last year, 58 central government officials were investigated, and 8 again. How can it be so coincidental? Does Hu Jintao have obsessive-compulsive disorder and like 8? In fact, more than 58 people were investigated by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection at that time, it should be 92, that is, 34 were not announced. They should be major generals, lieutenant generals and admirals.
So why did it slow down? His arrest resources were deployed to arrest generals, lieutenant generals and major generals in the army. It was not announced, and it was a black box operation, so it seemed to slow down. It takes 3 to 6 months to investigate an official. If the progress slows down, it may correspond to the arrest of Miao Hua in November last year, and several lieutenant generals and major generals were arrested at the same time, but they were not announced. I can only guess that this is the reason.
According to the 35-year-old ministerial level law, the general secretary is not promoted just because of one person. There are 40,000 bureau-level officials in China, and at most 1,000 people are on the general secretary’s shortlist. But Hu Jintao’s list cannot be told to Xi Jinping, and Xi Jinping’s list cannot be told to Hu Jintao, otherwise they will be arrested by the other party. So I think this is just a game of two people.
Che Zhimin is Jin Renqing’s secretary. Of course, it is difficult to find information in the 1980s.
Che Zhimin was a secretary at the director level from August 1985 to June 1989, and Jin Renqing was a vice governor from April 1985 to August 1991. From March 1987, Jin Renqing also served as the director of the Finance Department. Jin Renqing took office as vice governor in April 1985, and Che Zhimin was promoted to a director-level secretary in August 1985. The two overlapped in time (August 1985-June 1989). It is difficult to find information from the 1980s.
But there were only six or seven vice governors in Yunnan Province at the time, and Che Zhimin must have been the secretary of a vice governor of Yunnan Province. Who it was is unknown. Jin Renqing became vice governor for four months, and Che Zhimin was promoted to a director-level secretary.
Yunnan’s GDP ranked last in the country from 2003 to 2008, with a low fiscal self-sufficiency rate and reliance on central transfer payments (China Fiscal Yearbook 2003-2008). In 2005, Yunnan received about 50 billion yuan in central transfer payments, accounting for 60% of fiscal revenue, which was used for tourism (Shangri-La), infrastructure (Yunnan-Myanmar pipeline), hydropower, etc.
During his tenure as director of the provincial government research office, deputy secretary-general of the provincial government, and secretary-general of the provincial CPPCC, Comrade Che Zhimin made positive and fruitful contributions in building the “Shangri-La” brand, developing the Lancang-Mekong River, the Yunnan-Myanmar oil pipeline project, the construction of two strong and one fortress, and promoting the development of the jewelry and jade industry.
Yunnan is particularly poor and needs transfer payments from the central government. 60% of Yunnan’s fiscal money comes from central fiscal transfer payments. Che Zhimin served as deputy secretary-general of the Yunnan Provincial Government, and was the chief secretary of a Yunnan vice governor. It could be Qin Guangrong or Liu Ping. Liu Ping is certain, but Qin Guangrong is not so sure.
On June 5, 2007, Che Zhimin, deputy secretary-general of the Yunnan Provincial People’s Government, director of the Provincial People’s Government Development Research Center, and executive chairman of the first meeting of the forum, delivered a speech on behalf of Vice Governor Liu Ping at the opening ceremony of the first meeting of the Yunnan-Myanmar Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum.
When Che Zhimin was the chief secretary of the vice governor, Jin Renqing was China’s Minister of Finance. Yunnan Province also relies on China’s Ministry of Finance for 60% of its fiscal revenue, and the minister is Jin Renqing. Jin Renqing is Zhu Rongji’s diehard henchman. He is always whitewashing the outside world. It’s annoying. The evidence is here. Qin Guangrong is from Hunan. Qin Guangrong has been analyzed so many times.
So I pieced together the truth of the 2021 Beidaihe Conference for you bit by bit.
In July 2021, Zhou Hongxu was appointed as the director of the Central Security Bureau. Of course, such a special department as the Central Security Bureau cannot be completely controlled by a director.
On August 21, 2021, Zhou Jiangyong was arrested. It was in the middle of the Beidaihe Conference that Xi Jinping was dissatisfied, so Jiang Zemin asked Zhao Leji to arrest Zhou Jiangyong, the secretary of the Xiangshan County Party Committee who was promoted by Xi Jinping himself.
On August 28, 2021, the day when the Beidaihe Conference ended, Jiang Chunyun/Jin Renqing/Zhang Yujun died on the same day.
After the Beidaihe Conference, the provincial party secretaries and governors were adjusted, and Xi Jinping’s strength was damaged, but it was not seriously injured. He also preserved his strength. But the power of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao also increased.
The first secretary of the Yunnan Provincial Party Committee was Song Renqiong.
Song Renqiong served as the Minister of the Organization Department of the Central Committee and recommended Xiong Qingquan to Chen Yun as an alternate member of the Central Committee.
Xiong Qingquan was Zhu Rongji’s middle school classmate and Zhu Rongji’s fellow Hunanese.
Xiong Qingquan is the godfather of the Xi Jinping faction in Hunan. Qin Guangrong promoted by Xiong Qingquan
Qin Guangrong accompanied Bo Xilai to feed seagulls in Dianchi Lake, Yunnan
Zhu Rongji was the general backstage of Bo Xilai’s “Sing Red and Fight Black”.
Anyone who says that Bo Xilai and Xi Jinping are political enemies is a whitewashing technique invented by the big foreign propaganda.
Xiong Qingquan and Zhu Rongji were classmates in the same dormitory in middle school.
Qin Guangrong went to Yunnan to be the party secretary. We have found the logical relationship between Song Renqiong, the first secretary of the Yunnan Provincial Party Committee, and Qin Guangrong, the 11th secretary of the Yunnan Provincial Party Committee.
Che Zhimin was the chief secretary of Yunnan Vice Governor Liu Ping, who was previously the Secretary General of Yunnan Provincial Government. He was the chief secretary of Yunnan Governor Xu Rongkai (June 1, 2001 – November 6, 2006).
From January 2008 to January 2016, 54-year-old Che Zhimin served as a member of the Party Leadership Group and Secretary General of the Yunnan Provincial CPPCC, and Secretary of the Party Leadership Group of the General Office. Che Zhimin served as the chief secretary of Yunnan CPPCC Chairman Luo Zhengfu (March 2012 – January 2018) in the Yunnan Provincial CPPCC.
In summary, Che Zhimin was once the secretary of Yunnan Vice Governor Jin Renqing, who later became China’s Minister of Finance and was promoted by Zhu Rongji.
Cheng Yingxuan was the Deputy Director of the Department of Finance when Jin Renqing was the Deputy Governor of Yunnan and the Director of the Department of Finance, and later Cheng Yingxuan was the Deputy Governor.
Che Zhimin used to be the chief secretary of Yunnan Vice Governor Qin Guangrong, whose chief secretary was Ding Shaoxiang, whose chief secretary was Li Shisong. Li Shisong has been arrested.
Che Zhimin used to be the chief secretary of Yunnan Vice Governor Liu Ping, who was the chief secretary of Yunnan Governor Xu Rongkai.
Che Zhimin used to be the chief secretary of Yunnan CPPCC Chairman Luo Zhengfu.
Why is Che Zhimin so powerful? It is because Jin Renqing is China’s Minister of Finance and holds great financial power, and Zhu Rongji behind Jin Renqing is China’s second-in-command. Arresting Che Zhimin is equivalent to sweeping away the Yunnan officialdom. These people should not all be arrested. But if Che Zhimin is arrested, these people will tremble.
This netizen said
Dabao, several bloggers said that the probability of Hu Chunhua taking over as general secretary is 99%! Then the Japanese People’s Daily began to praise the Communist Youth League. These are all unusual signs.
My reply may be based on the so-called May Fourth Youth Day.
OK, thank you everyone.
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