胡锦涛重出江湖，要求习近平裸退。政治局召开民主生活会。墙内风向，古今中外最伟大的人是谁？习近平失去军权的重要原因。彭丽媛新闻被密集删除。蔡奇滑跪胡锦涛
胡锦涛重出江湖，要求习近平裸退。政治局召开民主生活会。墙内风向，古今中外最伟大的人是谁？习近平失去军权的重要原因。彭丽媛新闻被密集删除。蔡奇滑跪胡锦涛
大家好，欢迎回到我的频道！我看到一个比较好的观点，给大家分享一下。忽视陆军是习近平失去军权的重要原因。
中国没有真正的军队，只有中共的“党卫军”。中共始终反对军队国家化，强调“党指挥枪”，解放军忠诚于党，而非国家。其主要任务被指是镇压“韭菜”和维护中共独裁统治。
中国军队常用于维稳，如武警处理抗议事件。中共通过宣传和招募社会底层，确保军人没有独立政治意识，仅为党服务。解放军被设计为党的工具，难以形成自主团体，更不可能像西方军队那样效忠国家。
海军、空军、火箭军在党内斗争中“不好使”。军舰开不进中南海，飞机不能轰炸政治局，导弹更不可能用。真正决定党内权力的，是能控制地面的陆军。
枪杆子出政权，但是大炮军舰飞机飞弹出不了政权。
江泽民退休后，通过原16军（现78军）保持影响力。军委副主席徐才厚、范长龙，现任武警副司令付文化、82军军长付先学均出身16军，显示江派在陆军的深厚根基。
胡锦涛派系利用陆军发动军事政变，团灭习近平的31军，断绝习近平军权基础。其实习近平真正的家底，31军不还是陆军吗？
海内外观察人士认为，习近平已失去解放军掌控，证据包括：亲信被查：军委委员苗华被官宣查处，军委副主席何卫东很久没有出现，肯定被调查，与苗华有关多位高级将领也被调查。
原因：政策失人心：习近平加强社会控制、打压民营经济、对外扩张（比如“一带一路”），导致经济衰退、国际孤立，引发党内军内不满。红二代、政治老人、其他派系公开或暗中抵制。
习近平忽视陆军：
我们看这张图对比的很明显，中国陆军100万人，占中国军队人数的超过半数。但是经费只有拿到三分之一。中国海军只有六分之一的人数，但是能拿三分之一经费， 甚至经费比陆军还多。海军经费5400亿，陆军经费4600亿，海军经费甚至比陆军多出800亿。都给苗华贪污了，有个蛋用啊。
海军多出这800亿经费，习近平如果每年拿800亿去养一只私人军队，不至于到现在这样。没人去救习近平。天天吹中国军舰下饺子，下饺子有什么用，除了让小粉红天天吹牛，爽一爽。到了关键时刻能把军舰，开进中南海吗？
习近平重金砸向海军、空军、火箭军，提拔海军将领（比如董军任国防部长、王厚斌任火箭军司令），引发陆军不满。中国陆军人均经费30万，海军130万，空军100万，火箭军200万。当然海军空军火箭军主要是买装备。
党内失支持：习近平失去党内广泛支持，军权基础动摇
胡锦涛派系联合江泽民的陆军发动政变，清算习派：
陆军反扑：以张又侠为首的陆军支持反习派系，清洗海军、火箭军的习派将领。火箭军和海军腐败严重，成为反腐突破口，顺藤摸瓜拔除习派势力。 把柄太多了。反腐名正言顺，以习近平之道还治习近平之身。顺藤摸瓜，一倒一大片。把习近平上两届在军中培植的势力连根拔起。不用屈打成招，本来就是腐败，但是腐败只是借口。
习近平的哲学就是有问题，价值观出了问题。从江泽民的闷声发大财，到胡锦涛不折腾，明显就是让步状态，暗含意思就是独裁是不好，但是我们有中国的国情，就是忽悠啊。但是到了习近平这里，就成了四个自信，东升西降。意思就是谁说独裁不好的。我说独裁好就是好。这就是强词夺理。习近平这种哲学到了军队这里就是不切实际。盲目发展海军，空军，火箭军。到了关键的时刻，保命的家底都没有了。
盲目扩张：以“武统台湾”为旗号，重金发展海军、空军、火箭军，实际上就是为了采购装备吃回扣，而非实战需要。给习近平洗地，也无非是皇帝是好的，下面的人把经念歪了。
忽视陆军：陆军是党内斗争的决定性力量，虽然习近平有一只31军。但是明显不够用啊。
之前我分析的中国军队的实力上将的对比。习近平和胡锦涛江泽民在军队基本是五五开，习近平略占上风。简单理解就是55比45。但是在陆军方面习近平反而吃亏，是40%对60%。实力不济。注定失败的结局。
对比江胡：江泽民“闷声发大财”掌控陆军，胡锦涛“不折腾”暗中布局，习近平的强硬独裁，好大喜功失去平衡，最终被胡锦涛政变击败。
解放军的“党卫军”本质使其只效忠党，陆军在党内斗争中的作用无可替代。习近平的政策失误、忽视陆军、失去党内支持，导致丧失军权。
料敌从宽。习近平在军队的布局失衡，导致了习近平的最终失败。习近平没有充分认识到党内斗争的残酷性。习近平在军队的这点实力，不足以为他保驾护航。
现在如果复盘的话，这10年习近平就不应该发展海军。造再多的军舰，下饺子就是都是小粉红玩呢，对于内斗没有任何意义每年800亿全部砸到71军72军。73军原来就是31军，完全被习近平控制。再说也不是习近平控制的。而是陈云，陈毅给他留下的班底。习近平根本没有这样的眼光。
71军，72军习近平只控制了一半，完全控制之后，和81军82军换防到保定和张家口拱卫北京。这样保着习近平终身连任，没准儿还有戏。但是江泽民和胡锦涛也不能轻易同意啊。
这名网友说，
别把他想的好强，以前有人说，干啥啥不行，权斗第一名，现在权斗也成了弱智了，彻底废了。
我的回复是，对啊，这不是反常识吗？
既然干啥啥不行，那么可能权斗第一名？全是大外宣吹出来的。既然干啥啥不行，没有道理权斗第一名，权斗肯定也不行。
这名网友说看文大威报道说彭麻麻的新闻开始被密集删除了。
据网友反映，从2025年5月起，墙内社交平台上关于“古今中外最伟大的人是谁”的讨论突然聚焦于胡锦涛，甚至江泽民的名字也开始频繁出现。此前，这类问题通常指向毛泽东、邓小平。
这名网友说，
古今中外最伟大的人是谁？五月开始回答都变成胡锦涛了，这明显有问题。
这名网友说，
有网友反映5月之后有了江泽民和胡锦涛。
与胡锦涛和江泽民被捧的热潮形成鲜明对比，彭丽媛的相关新闻从5月起被大规模删除。彭丽媛作为习近平的老婆，长期是官方宣传的正面形象，涉及她的公益活动、文化推广等报道通常受到保护。然而，近期任何与她相关的内容，甚至无关紧要的新闻，都被迅速下架。这种异常审查力度与两位前领导人话题的火热并行，暗示当局可能在压制某些敏感信息，同时放任或推动胡锦涛和江泽民的正面叙事。网友推测，这可能是为了转移注意力，或掩盖习近平失去大权的迹象。
为何胡锦涛和江泽民突然被墙内热捧？结合网友讨论和此前背景，几个可能性浮现。首先，这可能反映胡锦涛派系和江泽民派系的联合反攻。传言胡派通过陆军政变清算习近平派系（比如31军覆灭），江派也暗中支持，习近平亲信（比如苗华、何卫东）被查。墙内吹捧胡锦涛和江泽民可能是两派借舆论造势，放大胡的温和形象和江的亲民风格，挑战习近平的“四个自信”叙事。其次，官方可能通过网信办操控舆论，测试公众对两位前领导人的接受度，为四中全会前的人事布局。
彭丽媛新闻的密集删除进一步加深了疑虑。她的公众形象与习近平的权威紧密绑定，删除其新闻可能意在削弱习近平派系的公众影响力，为胡派或江派上位清路。X上有传言称胡锦涛在政治局痛批习近平，要求习近平“裸退”，汪洋、胡春华接班。
这名网友说，
有人说汪洋会复出，大包怎么看？
这名网友说，
大包，出现最新的一个声音，汪洋复出接总书记，胡春华接总理，这种可能性有吗？
我的回复是这个要问胡锦涛。改天胡锦涛要自己出来接班习近平了。
我们看蔡奇都跳船了。
中共中央政治局常委、中央书记处书记蔡奇2025年5月16日至17日在河北唐山市检查指导深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育工作。他强调，要深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于加强党的作风建设的重要论述，坚持问题导向和严的标准，一体推进学查改，结合不同层级、地区、领域、行业实际加强分类指导，推动学习教育走深走实。
蔡奇没有提三大元素，习核心，习思想，两个确立。蔡奇总体表态，已经降低到4分了，满分是12分。而且蔡奇的表态，八项规定在前面，习近平在后面。如果理解成胡锦涛的的八项规定。那么就是蔡奇先说的胡锦涛，后说的习近平。习近平已经排名第二了。排在胡锦涛后面的。
蔡奇都跳船，蔡奇都不当孤忠了。习近平的政治行情，完全是下架的行情。
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
Hu Jintao returns to the political arena and demands Xi Jinping to retire without a formal position. The Politburo convenes a democratic life meeting. The wind direction inside the wall, who is the greatest person in ancient and modern times? The important reason why Xi Jinping lost his military power. Peng Liyuan’s news was deleted intensively. Cai Qi slid to his knees before Hu Jintao
Hello everyone, welcome back to my channel! I saw a better point of view and would like to share it with you. Ignoring the army is an important reason why Xi Jinping lost his military power.
China has no real army, only the CCP’s “SS”. The CCP has always opposed the nationalization of the army and emphasized that “the party commands the gun”. The People’s Liberation Army is loyal to the party, not the country. Its main task is said to be to suppress “leeks” and maintain the CCP’s dictatorship.
The Chinese army is often used to maintain stability, such as the armed police handling protests. The CCP ensures that soldiers have no independent political consciousness and only serve the party through propaganda and recruitment of the bottom of society. The People’s Liberation Army is designed as a tool of the party, and it is difficult to form an autonomous group, let alone be loyal to the country like Western armies.
The navy, air force, and rocket force are “not useful” in the intra-party struggle. Warships cannot enter Zhongnanhai, planes cannot bomb the Politburo, and missiles are even less likely to be used. What really determines the power within the party is the army that can control the ground.
The gun is the source of power, but cannons, warships, and planes cannot be used to launch a war.
After Jiang Zemin retired, he maintained his influence through the former 16th Army (now the 78th Army). Vice Chairmen of the Military Commission Xu Caihou and Fan Changlong, current Deputy Commander of the Armed Police Fu Wenhua, and Commander of the 82nd Army Fu Xianxue all came from the 16th Army, showing the deep roots of the Jiang faction in the army.
The Hu Jintao faction used the army to launch a military coup, annihilating Xi Jinping’s 31st Army and cutting off the foundation of Xi Jinping’s military power. In fact, isn’t the 31st Army still the army, which is Xi Jinping’s real family?
Observers at home and abroad believe that Xi Jinping has lost control of the People’s Liberation Army. Evidence includes: cronies are being investigated: Military Commission member Miao Hua was officially investigated, Vice Chairman of the Military Commission He Weidong has not appeared for a long time and must be investigated, and many senior generals related to Miao Hua are also being investigated.
Reason: Policies that have lost the support of the people: Xi Jinping has strengthened social control, suppressed the private economy, and expanded abroad (such as the “Belt and Road Initiative”), leading to economic recession and international isolation, causing dissatisfaction within the party and the military. The second generation of the reds, political elders, and other factions have openly or secretly resisted.
Xi Jinping ignores the army:
It is very obvious from the comparison in this picture that the Chinese army has 1 million people, accounting for more than half of the number of Chinese troops. But it only gets one-third of the funding. The Chinese navy has only one-sixth of the number of people, but it can get one-third of the funding, and even more funding than the army. The navy’s funding is 540 billion, and the army’s funding is 460 billion. The navy’s funding is even 80 billion more than the army. All of it was embezzled by Miao Hua, what’s the use.
If Xi Jinping had used 80 billion every year to support a private army with the extra 80 billion in funding for the navy, it would not be like this now. No one is going to save Xi Jinping. He brags about the Chinese warships being made like dumplings every day, but what’s the use of making dumplings, except for letting the little pinks brag about it every day and feel good. Can the warships be driven into Zhongnanhai at the critical moment?
Xi Jinping invested heavily in the Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, and promoted Navy generals (such as Dong Jun as Defense Minister and Wang Houbin as Rocket Force Commander), which caused dissatisfaction in the Army. The per capita funding of the Chinese Army is 300,000, the Navy is 1.3 million, the Air Force is 1 million, and the Rocket Force is 2 million. Of course, the Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force mainly buy equipment.
Loss of support within the party: Xi Jinping lost broad support within the party, and the foundation of military power was shaken
Hu Jintao’s faction joined Jiang Zemin’s Army to launch a coup and liquidate the Xi faction:
Army counterattack: The Army headed by Zhang Youxia supported the anti-Xi faction and purged Xi faction generals in the Navy and Rocket Force. The Rocket Force and the Navy were seriously corrupt, becoming a breakthrough in the anti-corruption campaign, and Xi’s faction was eradicated. There were too many handles. Anti-corruption was justified, and Xi Jinping’s way was used to punish Xi Jinping. Following the clues, a large number of them were knocked down. Uproot the forces that Xi Jinping cultivated in the military in the last two terms. There was no need to torture them into confessing, it was corruption in the first place, but corruption was just an excuse.
Xi Jinping’s philosophy is problematic, and his values are problematic. From Jiang Zemin’s making a fortune in silence to Hu Jintao’s not making any trouble, it is obvious that they are in a state of concession, implying that dictatorship is not good, but we have China’s national conditions, so it is just a lie. But when it comes to Xi Jinping, it becomes four confidences, the rise of the East and the decline of the West. It means that whoever says dictatorship is bad, I say dictatorship is good. This is specious. Xi Jinping’s philosophy is unrealistic when it comes to the military. Blindly develop the navy, air force, and rocket force. At the critical moment, there is no money left to save lives.
Blind expansion: Under the banner of “military reunification of Taiwan”, heavy investment is made to develop the navy, air force, and rocket force, which is actually for the purpose of purchasing equipment and taking kickbacks, rather than actual combat needs. Whitewashing Xi Jinping is nothing more than saying that the emperor is good, but the people below read the scriptures wrongly.
Ignoring the army: The army is the decisive force in the struggle within the party. Although Xi Jinping has a 31st army, it is obviously not enough.
I previously analyzed the comparison of the strength of the Chinese army. Xi Jinping and Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin are basically evenly matched in the military, with Xi Jinping having a slight advantage. Simply put, it is 55 to 45. But in the army, Xi Jinping is at a disadvantage, 40% to 60%. He is not strong enough. His fate is doomed to fail.
Comparison between Jiang and Hu: Jiang Zemin “made a fortune in silence” to control the army, Hu Jintao “did not make trouble” and secretly laid out, Xi Jinping’s tough dictatorship, his desire for grand achievements lost his balance, and he was eventually defeated by Hu Jintao’s coup.
The “SS” nature of the People’s Liberation Army makes it loyal only to the party, and the role of the army in the struggle within the party is irreplaceable. Xi Jinping’s policy mistakes, neglect of the army, and loss of support within the party led to the loss of military power.
Anticipate the enemy and be lenient. Xi Jinping’s unbalanced layout in the army led to his ultimate failure. Xi Jinping did not fully realize the cruelty of the struggle within the party. Xi Jinping’s little strength in the army is not enough to protect him.
If we review it now, Xi Jinping should not have developed the navy in the past 10 years. No matter how many warships are built, they are all for the little pinks to play with. It has no meaning for internal fighting. 80 billion yuan is spent on the 71st and 72nd Armies every year. The 73rd Armies was originally the 31st Armies, which is completely controlled by Xi Jinping. Besides, it is not controlled by Xi Jinping. It is the team left to him by Chen Yun and Chen Yi. Xi Jinping has no such vision at all.
Xi Jinping only controls half of the 71st and 72nd Armies. After fully controlling them, they will be transferred to Baoding and Zhangjiakou with the 81st and 82nd Armies to guard Beijing. In this way, Xi Jinping can be re-elected for life, and there may be a chance. But Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao cannot agree easily.
This netizen said,
Don’t think he is too strong. Some people said before that he can’t do anything and is the first in power struggle. Now power struggle has become stupid and completely useless.
My reply is, yes, isn’t this contrary to common sense?
Since he can’t do anything, then he might be the first in power struggle? It’s all blown up by the big foreign propaganda. Since he can’t do anything, it doesn’t make sense that he should be the first in power struggle, and power struggle is definitely not good.
This netizen said that after reading Wen Dawei’s report, news about Peng Mama began to be deleted intensively.
According to netizens, since May 2025, the discussion on “Who is the greatest person in ancient and modern times, China and abroad” on social platforms within the wall has suddenly focused on Hu Jintao, and even Jiang Zemin’s name has begun to appear frequently. Previously, such questions usually pointed to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
This netizen said,
Who is the greatest person in ancient and modern times, China and abroad? Since May, the answer has become Hu Jintao, which is obviously problematic.
This netizen said,
Some netizens reported that Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao appeared after May.
In sharp contrast to the craze for Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, news about Peng Liyuan has been deleted on a large scale since May. As Xi Jinping’s wife, Peng Liyuan has long been a positive image in official propaganda, and reports involving her public welfare activities, cultural promotion, etc. are usually protected. However, any recent content related to her, even insignificant news, has been quickly removed. This unusual censorship intensity, in parallel with the hot topics of the two former leaders, suggests that the authorities may be suppressing certain sensitive information while allowing or promoting positive narratives about Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin. Netizens speculate that this may be to divert attention or cover up signs that Xi Jinping has lost power.
Why are Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin suddenly being praised by the insiders? Combining netizens’ discussions and previous background, several possibilities emerge. First, this may reflect a joint counterattack by the Hu Jintao faction and the Jiang Zemin faction. It is rumored that the Hu faction liquidated the Xi Jinping faction through an army coup (such as the destruction of the 31st Army), and the Jiang faction also secretly supported it, and Xi Jinping’s confidants (such as Miao Hua and He Weidong) were investigated. The praise of Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin inside the wall may be the two factions using public opinion to build momentum, magnify Hu’s gentle image and Jiang’s people-friendly style, and challenge Xi Jinping’s “four confidences” narrative. Second, the authorities may manipulate public opinion through the Cyberspace Administration of China to test the public’s acceptance of the two former leaders and make personnel arrangements before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee.
The intensive deletion of news about Peng Liyuan has further deepened doubts. Her public image is closely tied to Xi Jinping’s authority. The deletion of her news may be intended to weaken the public influence of Xi Jinping’s faction and clear the way for the Hu faction or the Jiang faction to take over. There are rumors on X that Hu Jintao criticized Xi Jinping in the Politburo and asked Xi Jinping to “retire naked” and Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua to take over.
The netizen said,
Some people say that Wang Yang will make a comeback. What do you think?
The netizen said,
Dabao, there is a new voice that Wang Yang will return to take over as general secretary and Hu Chunhua will take over as prime minister. Is this possible?
My reply is that you have to ask Hu Jintao about this. Hu Jintao will come out to take over Xi Jinping one day.
We see that Cai Qi has jumped ship.
Cai Qi, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Secretary of the Central Secretariat, inspected and guided the in-depth implementation of the spirit of the Central Eight Regulations in Tangshan, Hebei from May 16 to 17, 2025. He stressed that we must thoroughly study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important expositions on strengthening the party’s work style, adhere to problem orientation and strict standards, promote learning, investigation and rectification in an integrated manner, strengthen classified guidance in light of the actual conditions of different levels, regions, fields and industries, and promote in-depth and practical learning and education.
Cai Qi did not mention the three major elements, Xi core, Xi thought, and two establishments. Cai Qi’s overall statement has been reduced to 4 points, with a full score of 12 points. Moreover, in Cai Qi’s statement, the eight regulations are in front and Xi Jinping is behind. If it is understood as Hu Jintao’s eight regulations. Then Cai Qi first mentioned Hu Jintao and then Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping is already ranked second. Behind Hu Jintao.
Cai Qi has jumped ship, and Cai Qi is no longer loyal. Xi Jinping’s political market is completely off the shelf.
OK, thank you everyone.
END