习最后一次公开讲话？习近平将和赵紫阳六四一样被终身软禁。香港特首李家超将随习近平一起下台。和董建华中途下台一样
习最后一次公开讲话？习近平将和赵紫阳六四一样被终身软禁。香港特首李家超将随习近平一起下台。和董建华中途下台一样
大家好，欢迎来到我的频道。2025年5月，中共中央政治局会议意外未召开，震动中共权力核心！政治局会议是高层决策的风向标，2023年每月召开，2024年仅10月暂停，为何5月突然“哑火”？今天，我们简单分析一下可能的四大原因，最后对比赵紫阳的惊人命运：习近平会否被废黜软禁？
原因一：习近平健康恶化？软禁前重访老家破传闻
第一个传闻，习近平健康恶化，导致5月会议取消。2025年5月，坊间盛传习近平重病，甚至中风卧床。73岁的他，执政十余年，高压状态可能引发健康危机。习近平的健康状况不佳一直有传闻。
2025年5月19日，习近平现身河南洛阳。到目前为止，习近平已经失踪13天。我们不知道，习近平哪一天会突然又出现在媒体上演戏。还是这种失踪的状态用一直持续下去。如果习近平就此人间蒸发，那么他很可能是，已知自己即将被软禁，请求在软禁前重访曾经居住的老家——洛阳耐火材料厂和涧西区旧居。官媒称他考察洛阳轴承集团，但实际目的地是耐火材料厂，距旧居仅3公里。耐火材料厂是习近平父亲习仲勋1965年和1975年至1978年下放之地，1975年习近平三次探访父亲，其中一次扒火车前往。1975年，习仲勋与妻子齐心、女儿桥桥、安安在此团聚，结束8年分离。习近平此行并非健康问题，而是面对失势命运，缅怀家族苦难与温馨时光，请求最后告别。他与河南省委书记刘宁互动自然，毫无病态，官媒的轴承集团报道只是掩护。胡春华3月31日代理总书记，习近平政治生涯将要结束，此行是软禁前的最后自由。因此习近平健康传闻站不住脚，可能性低，5月没有召开政治局会议另有隐情。
原因二：反腐风暴席席卷政治局？毕井泉被查掀巨浪
第二个原因，可能性极高：反腐调查锁定政治局成员，迫使5月会议暂停。以前习近平大权在握，反腐是政治斗争的工具，如今习近平丧失大权，反习派以其人之道还治其人之身，用反腐清除习近平亲信。2025年5月29日，全国政协常委毕井泉被查，因长春长生疫苗案，掀起权斗风暴。调查可能波及李干杰、马凯、王岐山等人。另外一个正在被调查的政治局委员是军委副主席何卫东。
毕井泉是习近平铁杆马仔，2015年任国家食药监总局局长，靠姚依林、马凯、王岐山提携。毕井泉曾任王岐山5年秘书，马凯秘书，被视为习近平亲信。毕井泉被查是反习派胡春华、李希的报复：王岐山曾阻胡春华接班，如今胡春华借反腐反攻。马凯与龚正绑定，毕井泉弟弟毕金泉侵吞青岛民企，暴光习近平派系腐败。何卫东2022年被习近平从非中央委员，非中央候补委员，甚至不是20大代表，直接提拔的军委副主席，何卫东涉军工腐败，动摇习近平残余势力。李干杰掌中组部，涉“买官”，震动高层。马凯、王岐山如果被查，标志反习派全面反攻。曹长庆、许昆林、岳修虎可能被一网打尽。2025年5月反腐席卷政治局，会议暂停，可能性极高。
原因三：5月14日政治局扩大会议？真假难辨
第三个原因，党内重大会议可能替代常规政治局会议。坊间传言，2025年5月14日起召开政治局扩大会议，持续至29日，讨论人事或重大问题。扩大会议罕见但有先例，比如1987年胡耀邦下台。如果召开，可能涉及退休常委胡锦涛、温家宝、张德江等人，无需另开常规会议。
但真假难判。支持者认为，扩大会议适合处理接班人危机，符合中共的黑箱操作。但反对者指出，多名政治局委员有公开报道。扩大会议可能召开但未公开，也可能子虚乌有，需要更多证据。
原因四：赵紫阳式废黜？习近平软禁风险多大
最后，对比1989年赵紫阳案例：习近平会否被废黜软禁？1989年六四学运爆发，赵紫阳主张对话，李鹏、邓小平推镇压。5-6月政治局未开，邓小平召集元老会议，废黜赵紫阳。赵紫阳被控“分裂党”，6月下台，软禁至2005年去世。政治局会议没有召开，标志党内清洗。
习近平2025年5月有无类似命运？相似点明显：毕井泉被查指向反习派胡春华、李希反攻，胡春华3月31日代理总书记，5月25日吊唁越南前国家主席陈德良，公开代行总书记职责。习近平权力崩塌。5月政治局未开，因反习派全面掌控，习近平可能被废黜软禁。
我等等看吧，看看习近平能不能再出来。如果洛阳这一次，是习近平最后一次公开出现，那就太神奇了。
2025年5月30日，香港中联办主任郑雁雄突然被免职，国务院港澳办常务副主任周霁接任，引发震动。这一人事变动没有任何预兆，由中国人力资源和社会保障部官网低调公布，打破中共传统放风模式，凸显中南海权力博弈的剧烈。郑雁雄缺席王毅5月29-30日香港活动。周霁属胡锦涛派系，与胡春华关系密切，此举是放风胡春华接班总书记的信号。香港特首李家超作为习近平派系盟友，恐怕难以续任，而澳门特首贺一诚被胡锦涛马仔岑浩辉替换，表明胡锦涛派系全面掌控港澳事务。
周霁的任命是胡锦涛派系崛起的明确标志。2004-2006年周霁任湖北襄樊市委常委、谷城县委书记，受时任襄樊市委书记田承忠提携。田承忠是田纪云侄子，田纪云是赵紫阳头号马仔，1980年代任国务院副总理，胡锦涛继承赵紫阳政治遗产，周霁因此被视为胡锦涛马仔。周霁后任湖北宜昌市委书记，宜昌是胡春华故乡，二人关系匪浅。2018年，周霁陪同温家宝秘书田学斌调研，显示与胡派核心温家宝的联系。2023年，周霁升任正部级港澳办副主任，被视为接班人选，如今接掌中联办，印证胡锦涛的布局。
这名网友说，
周霁自身不知是能力不行还是怎么的，在宜昌主政那几年经济很差在胡春华老家那几年口碑很差
我的回复是，
我只是分析人事关系。我既不背书胡锦涛，也不背书胡锦涛的马仔。
胡春华2025年3月31日起代理总书记，5月25日吊唁越南前国家主席陈德良，公开代行总书记职责。胡春华的班底正在加速扩张：广东副省长马正勇是胡春华北大校友，2017年马正勇提拔广东省广州市海珠区委书记时，胡春华是广东省委书记。就是马正勇提拔的是不是胡春华提拔的广州市海珠区委书记，就像习近平亲手提拔的象山县委书记周江勇一样。我们不知道，但是马正勇提拔海珠区委书记的时候，广东省委书记就是胡春华，这是事实。
中组部长石泰峰，和胡春华有内蒙古交集、江苏副书记刘小涛，也是胡春华在广东亲手提拔的。刘小涛这个更直接，刘小涛的副局级，地级市市长，地级市市委书记期间的广东省委书记都是胡春华。这些和胡春华有各种交集的马仔纷纷上位。周霁接任中联办，是替胡春华掌控香港。人民网炒作胡春华仕途起点林芝“腾空而起”，释放其接班信号。胡锦涛、温家宝、张德江联手推胡春华上位，周霁的任命是这一战略的关键一步。
郑雁雄5月22日后没有公开出现，缺席王毅香港活动，5月30日被免职，去向不明。
香港特首李家超作为警察出身的习近平盟友，处境岌岌可危。评论员称“警察出身的特首历史使命已完成”，难以续任。李家超2022年上任，力推国安法，属习近平派系。习近平2025年5月19日重访洛阳耐火材料厂，已知将被软禁，政治生涯终结。胡春华3月31日代理总书记，4月10日周边工作会议确认地位，李家超作为习近平马仔，难以在胡春华主导下续任。习近平马仔马兴瑞、赵一德表态投诚，显示众叛亲离，李家超如果不倒戈，恐被清算。
澳门特首的更替进一步印证胡锦涛的布局。2024年8月，澳门特首贺一诚以健康为由放弃连任，由岑浩辉接任。贺一诚任期仅5年，没有满10年任期，表明贺一诚作为习近平派系成员失势。岑浩辉与胡锦涛派系关系密切：岑浩辉1999-2024年任澳门终审法院院长，岑浩辉的顾问是陈里程。陈里程2005年与胡春华马仔马正勇共事广州，属于胡春华马仔。胡锦涛2024年6月19日通过军事政变重掌大权，迫使贺一诚下台，换上岑浩辉，掌控澳门。
周霁接任香港中联办与岑浩辉上位澳门特首，形成胡派对港澳的双线控制。胡锦涛从边疆西藏、内蒙古、宁夏及港澳借力，周霁与胡春华的湖北交集、岑浩辉与马正勇的广州渊源，显示胡派精心布局。，王毅5月30日在香港强调“对话协商”“和平解决争端”，暗示胡派治港将更温和，区别于习近平的强硬路线，为胡春华上位铺垫。
胡锦涛继承赵紫阳政治遗产，贺国强、李克强均受赵紫阳提携，周霁经田纪云、俞正声提拔，胡锦涛继承了中国所谓改开之后最大的政治军事集团，邓小平政治集团，根基深厚。习近平军权崩塌，何卫东、苗华被查、亲信被清除，为胡春华上位扫清障碍。
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
Xi’s last public speech? Xi Jinping will be placed under house arrest for life, just like Zhao Ziyang on June 4. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will step down with Xi Jinping. Just like Tung Chee-hwa stepped down midway
Hello everyone, welcome to my channel. In May 2025, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee was unexpectedly not held, shaking the core of the CPC’s power! The Politburo meeting is a weathervane for high-level decision-making. It will be held every month in 2023 and only suspended in October 2024. Why did it suddenly “fail” in May? Today, we briefly analyze the four possible reasons, and finally compare it with Zhao Ziyang’s amazing fate: Will Xi Jinping be deposed and placed under house arrest?
Reason 1: Xi Jinping’s health deteriorates? Revisiting his hometown before house arrest to break the rumor
The first rumor is that Xi Jinping’s health deteriorated, leading to the cancellation of the May meeting. In May 2025, it was rumored that Xi Jinping was seriously ill and even had a stroke and was bedridden. At the age of 73, he has been in power for more than ten years, and the high-pressure state may trigger a health crisis. There have been rumors that Xi Jinping is in poor health.
On May 19, 2025, Xi Jinping appeared in Luoyang, Henan. So far, Xi Jinping has been missing for 13 days. We don’t know when Xi Jinping will suddenly appear in the media again. Or will this state of disappearance continue. If Xi Jinping disappears from the world, then he is likely to know that he is about to be placed under house arrest and request to revisit his hometown, Luoyang Refractory Materials Factory and his old residence in Jianxi District, before house arrest. The official media said that he inspected the Luoyang Bearing Group, but the actual destination was the Refractory Materials Factory, which is only 3 kilometers away from the old residence. The Refractory Materials Factory is where Xi Jinping’s father Xi Zhongxun was sent down in 1965 and from 1975 to 1978. In 1975, Xi Jinping visited his father three times, one of which was to hitchhike a train. In 1975, Xi Zhongxun reunited with his wife Qi Xin, daughter Qiao Qiao, and An An here, ending their 8-year separation. Xi Jinping’s trip was not a health issue, but facing the fate of losing power, remembering the family’s suffering and warm times, and requesting a final farewell. He interacted naturally with Henan Provincial Party Secretary Liu Ning, without any pathology, and the official media’s report on the bearing group was just a cover. Hu Chunhua will act as general secretary on March 31, and Xi Jinping’s political career will end. This trip is the last freedom before house arrest. Therefore, the rumors about Xi Jinping’s health are untenable and unlikely. There is another hidden reason for not holding a Politburo meeting in May.
Reason 2: Anti-corruption storm sweeping the Politburo? Bi Jingquan’s investigation caused a huge wave
The second reason is highly likely: the anti-corruption investigation targeted Politburo members, forcing the May meeting to be suspended. In the past, Xi Jinping was in power, and anti-corruption was a tool for political struggle. Now that Xi Jinping has lost power, the anti-Xi faction has used anti-corruption to treat him in his own way, using anti-corruption to eliminate Xi Jinping’s confidants. On May 29, 2025, Bi Jingquan, a member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, was investigated because of the Changchun Changsheng vaccine case, which set off a storm of power struggle. The investigation may affect Li Ganjie, Ma Kai, Wang Qishan and others. Another Politburo member under investigation is He Weidong, Vice Chairman of the Military Commission.
Bi Jingquan is Xi Jinping’s staunch henchman. In 2015, he was appointed director of the State Food and Drug Administration. He was promoted by Yao Yilin, Ma Kai, and Wang Qishan. Bi Jingquan served as Wang Qishan’s secretary for 5 years and Ma Kai’s secretary. He is regarded as Xi Jinping’s confidant. Bi Jingquan’s investigation is a revenge of the anti-Xi faction Hu Chunhua and Li Xi: Wang Qishan once blocked Hu Chunhua from taking over, and now Hu Chunhua is counterattacking with anti-corruption. Ma Kai is tied to Gong Zheng, and Bi Jingquan’s brother Bi Jinquan embezzled private enterprises in Qingdao, exposing Xi Jinping’s faction’s corruption. He Weidong was directly promoted to vice chairman of the Military Commission by Xi Jinping in 2022 from a non-Central Committee member, non-Central Committee alternate member, and even not a representative of the 20th National Congress. He Weidong is involved in military industry corruption and shakes Xi Jinping’s remaining power. Li Ganjie is in charge of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee and is involved in “buying officials”, which shakes the top leaders. If Ma Kai and Wang Qishan are investigated, it will mark a comprehensive counterattack by the anti-Xi faction. Cao Changqing, Xu Kunlin, and Yue Xiuhu may be caught in one fell swoop. In May 2025, the anti-corruption campaign swept the Politburo and the meeting was suspended, which is very likely.
Reason 3: An enlarged Politburo meeting on May 14? It is difficult to tell whether it is true or false
The third reason is that major party meetings may replace regular Politburo meetings. It is rumored that an enlarged Politburo meeting will be held from May 14, 2025, and will last until the 29th to discuss personnel or major issues. Enlarged meetings are rare but there are precedents, such as Hu Yaobang’s resignation in 1987. If held, it may involve retired Standing Committee members Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Zhang Dejiang and others, and there is no need to hold another regular meeting.
But it is difficult to judge whether it is true or false. Supporters believe that the enlarged meeting is suitable for dealing with the successor crisis and is in line with the CCP’s black box operation. But opponents point out that there are public reports on several Politburo members. The enlarged meeting may be held but not made public, or it may be fictitious, and more evidence is needed.
Reason 4: Zhao Ziyang-style dethronement? How big is the risk of Xi Jinping’s house arrest?
Finally, let’s compare it with the case of Zhao Ziyang in 1989: Will Xi Jinping be deposed and placed under house arrest? In 1989, the June 4th student movement broke out. Zhao Ziyang advocated dialogue, while Li Peng and Deng Xiaoping pushed for suppression. The Politburo did not meet in May and June, and Deng Xiaoping convened a meeting of elders to depose Zhao Ziyang. Zhao Ziyang was accused of “splitting the party”, stepped down in June, and was placed under house arrest until his death in 2005. The Politburo meeting was not held, marking the party’s internal purge.
Will Xi Jinping have a similar fate in May 2025? The similarities are obvious: Bi Jingquan’s investigation points to the counterattack of the anti-Xi faction Hu Chunhua and Li Xi. Hu Chunhua served as acting general secretary on March 31, and mourned the former Vietnamese President Tran Duc Luong on May 25, publicly acting as general secretary. Xi Jinping’s power collapsed. The Politburo did not meet in May, and because the anti-Xi faction took full control, Xi Jinping may be deposed and placed under house arrest.
I’ll wait and see if Xi Jinping can come out again. If this time in Luoyang is Xi Jinping’s last public appearance, it would be amazing.
On May 30, 2025, Zheng Yanxiong, director of the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in Hong Kong, was suddenly dismissed and replaced by Zhou Ji, executive deputy director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the State Council, which caused a stir. This personnel change was announced without any warning by the official website of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of China, breaking the traditional CCP leak mode and highlighting the fierce power game in Zhongnanhai. Zheng Yanxiong was absent from Wang Yi’s Hong Kong activities on May 29-30. Zhou Ji belongs to the Hu Jintao faction and has a close relationship with Hu Chunhua. This move is a signal that Hu Chunhua will take over as general secretary. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee, as an ally of Xi Jinping’s faction, is unlikely to continue his term, while Macau Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng was replaced by Hu Jintao’s henchman Sam Hoi Fai, indicating that Hu Jintao’s faction has full control over Hong Kong and Macau affairs.
Zhou Ji’s appointment is a clear sign of the rise of Hu Jintao’s faction. From 2004 to 2006, Zhou Ji served as a member of the Standing Committee of the Xiangfan Municipal Party Committee and Secretary of the Gucheng County Party Committee in Hubei Province. He was promoted by Tian Chengzhong, then Secretary of the Xiangfan Municipal Party Committee. Tian Chengzhong is the nephew of Tian Jiyun, who was Zhao Ziyang’s number one henchman. In the 1980s, he served as Vice Premier of the State Council. Hu Jintao inherited Zhao Ziyang’s political legacy, so Zhou Ji was regarded as Hu Jintao’s henchman. Zhou Ji later served as Secretary of the Yichang Municipal Party Committee in Hubei Province. Yichang is the hometown of Hu Chunhua, and the two have a close relationship. In 2018, Zhou Ji accompanied Wen Jiabao’s secretary Tian Xuebin on a research trip, showing his connection with Wen Jiabao, the core of the Hu faction. In 2023, Zhou Ji was promoted to Deputy Director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office at the ministerial level and was regarded as a successor. Now he has taken over the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, confirming Hu Jintao’s layout.
This netizen said,
I don’t know if Zhou Ji himself is incompetent or what, the economy was very bad during the years when he was in charge of Yichang and his reputation was very bad during the years in Hu Chunhua’s hometown
My reply is,
I am just analyzing personnel relations. I neither endorse Hu Jintao nor Hu Jintao’s lackeys.
Hu Chunhua will serve as acting general secretary from March 31, 2025, and will mourn the death of former Vietnamese President Tran Duc Luong on May 25, and publicly perform the duties of general secretary. Hu Chunhua’s team is accelerating its expansion: Guangdong Vice Governor Ma Zhengyong is Hu Chunhua’s Peking University alumnus. When Ma Zhengyong promoted the secretary of the Haizhu District Committee of Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province in 2017, Hu Chunhua was the secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee. That is, whether Ma Zhengyong promoted the secretary of the Haizhu District Committee of Guangzhou City promoted by Hu Chunhua is like Zhou Jiangyong, the secretary of the Xiangshan County Party Committee promoted by Xi Jinping himself. We don’t know, but when Ma Zhengyong promoted the secretary of the Haizhu District Committee, the secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee was Hu Chunhua, this is a fact.
Shi Taifeng, the head of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee, has connections with Hu Chunhua in Inner Mongolia, and Liu Xiaotao, the deputy secretary of Jiangsu Province, was also promoted by Hu Chunhua in Guangdong. Liu Xiaotao is more direct. Hu Chunhua was the secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee during Liu Xiaotao’s deputy bureau level, prefecture-level city mayor, and prefecture-level city party committee secretary. These lackeys who have various connections with Hu Chunhua have risen to power. Zhou Ji took over the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to control Hong Kong for Hu Chunhua. People’s Daily hyped that Linzhi, the starting point of Hu Chunhua’s career, “soared into the sky”, sending a signal of his succession. Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Zhang Dejiang jointly pushed Hu Chunhua to power, and Zhou Ji’s appointment was a key step in this strategy.
Zheng Yanxiong did not appear in public after May 22, missed Wang Yi’s Hong Kong activities, was dismissed on May 30, and his whereabouts are unknown.
Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee, as a policeman and Xi Jinping’s ally, is in a precarious situation. Commentators said that “the historical mission of the policeman-born chief executive has been completed” and it is difficult for him to continue his term. Lee Ka-chiu took office in 2022 and pushed for the National Security Law. He belongs to Xi Jinping’s faction. Xi Jinping revisited the Luoyang Refractory Material Factory on May 19, 2025. It is known that he will be placed under house arrest and his political career will end. Hu Chunhua became acting general secretary on March 31, and confirmed his position at the peripheral work meeting on April 10. As Xi Jinping’s henchman, Lee Ka-chiu will find it difficult to continue his term under the leadership of Hu Chunhua. Xi Jinping’s henchmen Ma Xingrui and Zhao Yide expressed their surrender, showing that they were deserted by their friends and relatives. If Lee Ka-chiu does not turn against them, he may be liquidated.
The replacement of the Chief Executive of Macau further confirms Hu Jintao’s layout. In August 2024, Macau Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng gave up re-election on the grounds of health and was replaced by Sam Hou Fai. Ho Iat Seng’s term of office was only 5 years, not a full 10-year term, indicating that Ho Iat Seng lost power as a member of Xi Jinping’s faction. Sam Hou Fai has a close relationship with Hu Jintao’s faction: Sam Hou Fai served as the President of the Macau Court of Final Appeal from 1999 to 2024, and Sam Hou Fai’s advisor is Chen Licheng. Chen Licheng worked with Hu Chunhua’s henchman Ma Zhengyong in Guangzhou in 2005 and was one of Hu Chunhua’s henchmen. Hu Jintao regained power through a military coup on June 19, 2024, forcing Ho Iat Seng to step down and replace him with Sam Ho Fai to control Macau.
Zhou Ji took over the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in Hong Kong and Sam Ho Fai became the Chief Executive of Macau, forming a dual-line control of Hong Kong and Macau by the Hu faction. Hu Jintao borrowed strength from the frontiers of Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Hong Kong and Macau. Zhou Ji and Hu Chunhua’s intersection in Hubei and Sam Ho Fai and Ma Zhengyong’s Guangzhou origins showed that the Hu faction had carefully laid out. On May 30, Wang Yi emphasized “dialogue and consultation” and “peaceful resolution of disputes” in Hong Kong, implying that the Hu faction would govern Hong Kong more moderately, different from Xi Jinping’s hard line, paving the way for Hu Chunhua to take office.
Hu Jintao inherited Zhao Ziyang’s political legacy. He Guoqiang and Li Keqiang were both promoted by Zhao Ziyang. Zhou Jijing, Tian Jiyun and Yu Zhengsheng promoted Hu Jintao, who inherited the largest political and military group in China after the so-called reform and opening up, the Deng Xiaoping political group, which has a deep foundation. Xi Jinping’s military power collapsed, He Weidong and Miao Hua were investigated, and his cronies were cleared, clearing the way for Hu Chunhua to take over.
Okay, thank you everyone.
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