习近平辞去军委主席职务，李强代理军委主席，还是张又侠代理军委主席。王沪宁要当最后的孤忠？安徽书记梁言顺带头下架习近平
习近平辞去军委主席职务，李强代理军委主席，还是张又侠代理军委主席。王沪宁要当最后的孤忠？安徽书记梁言顺带头下架习近平
大家好，习近平丧失军权的表现得很明显。我们分析这两个新闻，张又侠会见印尼，李强主持双拥会议，分析一下，谁在代理军委主席。
2025年4月21日，中印尼外长、防长召开“2+2”对话机制首次会议。2025年4月22日，中共中央军委副主席张又侠单独会见了来访的印度尼西亚国防部长沙夫⾥。张又侠单独见印尼国防部长，显示张又侠可代表军委做决策，习近平失去了军权。
中共官方接待外宾有一定规格，通常由部长级对等官员接待，另外会安排拜会更高层官员，以表示对来宾的重视，使来宾有尊荣感。印尼是东南亚大国，中共对东盟国家持拉拢立场，由张又侠接待看起来合理，“但如果由习近平接待可能更为重视印尼”。
中印尼涉及深层次军事合作，需要双方军队的决策者敲定相关事项。董军不是军委委员，只是名义上的国防部长，没有决策权，“按照以往的军委主席负责制，应该是习近平亲自决策。但这次张又侠出面单独见了印尼国防部长，显示张又侠可以代表军委做出决策。”
政治部主任苗华被审查，另一个军委副主席何卫东基本被证实出事，“军委看来确实由张又侠说了算，习近平应该失去了对军权的控制。这则新闻似乎有故意展示中共军权明显变动的味道，明示给国内、国外看。”
美国及其盟友之间，外长和防长可以共同协商对外工作，中共没有类似机制。张又侠单独出面应该也在显示，军队的事对内、对外都是自己说了算。中共外交部没有掺和，习近平似乎协调不了这两个部门，进一步证实习近平大权旁落。
外界传言张又侠掌握军委权力，从此次接见也可以看出，张又侠在何卫东被调查、习近平大权旁落后，已经掌握军权，这也让习近平提早交棒可能性越来越高。
而中共官方给的信号也很明确。这是人民日报第3版，张又侠说，在两国元首战略引领下。董军说，当前两军关系发展势头良好。张又侠和董军都闭口不提习近平。至于说董军的命运，不好说，一般预测，要么是抓了，要么是退休到政协。也就是说很少有人预测，明年二会之后，董军还会是中国的国防部长。只能说还需要观察。如果董军还能连续出来一两次，那么有可能可以平安退休到政协。如果下次又是刘振立或张又侠出来，那说明董军还是没有过关。
习近平会见阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫。阿塞拜疆总统和郑栅洁握手，为什么要说郑栅洁呢？因为2025年4月22日中央电视台和中国发改委搞了一个活动。习近平经济思想，郑栅洁出席了。
整个活动有3个正部级中国发改委主任郑栅洁，中宣部副部长，中央电视台台长慎海雄，政协经济委员会副主任苗圩。然后还有6个副部级。就这么一个宣传习近平经济思想的会，他们就能习核心，习思想，两个确立，我说的三大元素，一个不提。3个正部级6个副部级，加起来9个人居然能够，没有一个人提过三大元素。所以他们搞这个活动，就是打着习近平的名号，骗经费。下个总书记上台，他们就是继续吹捧下个总书记，反正得把钱给他们，把钱骗到手。这是一个吹捧习近平经济思想的会，他们就能三大元素一个不提。
而且李书磊缺席了这个会议，这是2025年4月22日，但是4月23日，李书磊出来打卡了。按说，我这个频道，关注的人也不多，但是中共就好像回应了我一样，最近没有出现的三个政治局委员，张又侠，李干杰，李书磊3个人都出来打卡了。
但是李干杰和李书磊只是打卡，没有报道，还是被中纪委调查的可能。
我把这个公式化，程式化，就是一是有没有习核心习思想，两个确立，三个元素。如果没有是不是象征性提一句习近平，第三种就是完全避开习近平，不提习近平。现在这三种情况我们都可以观察到。
从张又侠代替习近平会见印尼国防部长来看，是张又侠在代理军委主席。
又有一个大瓜。
2025年4月23日，全国双拥模范城（县）命名大会在北京召开。会上传达了中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平重要指示。中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强出席大会并讲话。
虽然顶着习近平的名头，但是没有让习近平参加。也就是说现在军队的活动，根本就不让习近平参加。起码是这一次，不让习近平参加，因为2020年10月的双拥模范城表彰大会，习近平参加合影了，当时是习近平，李克强，王沪宁参加的。
李强去讲话了，不知道是李强在代理军委主席，还是张又侠在代理军委主席。从张又侠参加会议来看，还是张又侠在代理军委主席。这个会议上有不少的瓜，首先沈跃跃出现了，有传言说，沈跃跃陪同胡春华访问非洲，并秘密访问美国。还有传言说沈跃跃的女婿，保利文化集团董事长王波，挂职哈尔滨副市长。
这个传言的真假我无法判断，一个侧面印证的办法就是，看一下，黑龙江省委书记许勤和哈尔滨市委书记于洪涛的派系。沈跃跃是胡锦涛第二个任期的中组部长常务副部长。当年大权在握，中组部一把手，二把手，差不多一样的好使。沈跃跃的确是胡锦涛的人，还有传言说，沈跃跃会接替副总理。沈跃跃岁数太大了，应该不会接任。如果王波真的是沈跃跃的女婿，那么许勤和于洪涛应该都是胡锦涛的人，才合理。就是说，许勤和于洪涛即便是胡锦涛的人，沈跃跃的人，也不能证明，王波就是沈跃跃的女婿。但是那肯定就是一个派系的，起码是合情合理的推测。
如果许勤和于洪涛是习近平的人，那么王波肯定就不是沈跃跃的女婿。就是，是不能证实，但是，否，就可以证伪。逻辑是这样的。
这次双拥会议上，就顺便让李书磊出来打卡。李书磊只是打卡，没有单独的报道，就没有机会表态啊。
我不知道李书磊是面临中纪委调查，还是因为李书磊是中宣部长，故意这么安排。上次李书磊公开出现就是周边工作会议，也只是打卡，没有任何机会表态，我不知道是他自己故意这么安排，回避表态，还是怎么回事儿啊。
中国人大常委会委员长赵乐际2025年4月23日下午在北京分别会见肯尼亚总统鲁托、阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫。这是外交活动，没有任何有关三大元素的表态，只是提一句习近平，还有一个功能就是打卡。
然后王沪宁这个节目效果就来了，新时代党的统一战线工作专题研讨班座谈会2025年4月23日在京召开。中共中央政治局常委、全国政协主席王沪宁出席并讲话。按说我这小的频道，王沪宁不可能看到，没有太多的人看啊。但是王沪宁就是这么配合，我说三个元素，王沪宁，干净利索地，全部复述一遍。
要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深刻领悟“两个确立”的决定性意义、坚决做到“两个维护”。王沪宁表示，党的十八大以来，以习近平同志为核心的党中央全面加强、系统部署统战工作。整篇报道不过830个字，然后王沪宁上来，废话不多少，把我说三大元素，直接复述一遍。我都看傻了，看笑了，就直接把我说的三大元素，复述一遍。然后就是加上一些废话党八股，收尾了。
感觉好像我是王沪宁的秘书一样。如果再细说呢，王沪宁还加了一句全面落实二中，三中全会精神。然后把习核心放在了第二段。所以王沪宁的意思就是，还是有下架习核心的可能，因为放在第二段，但是暂时是不是下架。这不知道是王沪宁的意思，还是新华社意思，还是党中央的意思。关键还要看这个月政治局会议的公报，政治局会议的表态。
我们把这些信息综合起来，看看中共到底想表达什么意思。习近平作为国家主席，出来搞外交活动，又不让他参加，两个军队的活动。张又侠跟随李强出现在新闻联播。那就是新闻联播背书了习近平不再是军委主席了。然后王沪宁作为中共的四号人物。因为王沪宁的份量和李强，赵乐际相比还差点意思，这是常识。
王沪宁的意思是习近平现在暂时还是党中央的核心，但是未来有可能不是，但不是现在。因为王沪宁是四号人物，他出来背书，这个信号既不强，也不弱。如果是李强或者赵乐际出来背书，那就有点太强势了，感觉习近平要重掌大权了。
王沪宁本来就是搞统战，以前是大笔杆子，搞忽悠的，让他出来正合适。这就是我个人的解读，另外一个就是蔡奇有9天没有出来了。何卫东已经失踪快两个月了。而且王沪宁有一层解读就是，苗华这个月政治局会议可能要被处理了。
中共中央政治局常委、国务院副总理丁薛祥2025年4月23日在北京会见伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐。丁薛祥这是外交活动，什么表态都没有，就是象征性的提一句习近平。丁薛祥好像做了白内障手术，突然戴着厚厚的老花镜。我们看有黑色反光。丁薛祥真狠，还能用这种方法过关。
现在已经有三名政治局委员表演过闭口不提习近平。分别是马兴瑞，尹力，张又侠，其实张又侠早就有过，我们可能没有总结到。有个两个政治局委员李鸿忠和陈吉宁和内蒙古党委书记孙绍骋表演过，两个确立，两个维护说一半。但是这种现象暂时还没有蔓延到政治局常委这个级别。
我们尽量准确的解读中共给出的信号。因为现在习近平下台，大局已定，但是如何能够准确的评估，习近平到底哪天下台。就说2025年8月8号的四中全会他要拿掉几个职务。
这名网友说
风向有点明显了，安徽梁言顺最新会议里面只字不提二四四二和习近平三个字，通篇都是“总书记”😅
我的回复是感谢这名网友啊。
这是发表在安徽日报上面，这是安徽省委的机关报，这是两次报道，一次是4月22日，一次是4月24日，一次说了两次总书记，一次说了7次总书记，就是不说习近平的名字，成了伏地魔了。这个梁言顺简直太爱我们了，就怕我们没有话题没有梗。说明辱包不仅可以发表在油管上，还能发表在党报党刊上了。还能这么操作呢，我不知道，这种现象会不会向其他省委书记蔓延，梁言顺是不是在带风向。
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
Xi Jinping resigned as Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Will Li Qiang or Zhang Youxia be the acting Chairman of the Central Military Commission? Wang Huning wants to be the last loyal one? Anhui Secretary Liang Yanshun took the lead in removing Xi Jinping
Hello everyone, Xi Jinping’s loss of military power is obvious. Let’s analyze these two news, Zhang Youxia met with Indonesia and Li Qiang presided over the double support meeting, and analyze who is acting as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
On April 21, 2025, the foreign ministers and defense ministers of China and Indonesia held the first meeting of the “2+2” dialogue mechanism. On April 22, 2025, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, met with the visiting Indonesian Defense Minister Shafri alone. Zhang Youxia met with the Indonesian Defense Minister alone, which shows that Zhang Youxia can make decisions on behalf of the Central Military Commission and Xi Jinping has lost his military power.
The official reception of foreign guests by the Chinese Communist Party has certain specifications. They are usually received by ministerial-level counterparts. In addition, they will arrange visits to higher-level officials to show their importance to the guests and make them feel honored. Indonesia is a big country in Southeast Asia. The CCP is trying to win over ASEAN countries. It seems reasonable to have Zhang Youxia receive them, “but if Xi Jinping receives them, he may pay more attention to Indonesia.”
China and Indonesia involve in-depth military cooperation, which requires the decision-makers of the military of both sides to finalize relevant matters. Dong Jun is not a member of the CMC, but only a nominal defense minister, without decision-making power. “According to the previous CMC chairman responsibility system, Xi Jinping should make decisions personally. But this time Zhang Youxia came forward to meet the Indonesian defense minister alone, showing that Zhang Youxia can make decisions on behalf of the CMC.”
Political Department Director Miao Hua was investigated, and another CMC vice chairman He Weidong was basically confirmed to have an accident. “It seems that Zhang Youxia has the final say in the CMC, and Xi Jinping should have lost control of military power. This news seems to have the flavor of deliberately showing the obvious changes in the CCP’s military power, and showing it to the domestic and foreign countries.”
Between the United States and its allies, the foreign minister and the defense minister can jointly discuss foreign affairs, and the CCP does not have a similar mechanism. Zhang Youxia’s appearance alone should also show that he has the final say on military matters, both internally and externally. The CCP Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not get involved, and Xi Jinping seemed unable to coordinate these two departments, further confirming that Xi Jinping’s power has fallen into the hands of others.
It is rumored that Zhang Youxia holds the power of the Military Commission. From this meeting, it can be seen that Zhang Youxia has already held the military power after He Weidong was investigated and Xi Jinping’s power was taken away. This also makes it increasingly likely that Xi Jinping will hand over the baton early.
The official signal given by the Chinese Communist Party is also very clear. This is the third page of the People’s Daily. Zhang Youxia said that under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state. Dong Jun said that the current development momentum of the relationship between the two militaries is good. Zhang Youxia and Dong Jun kept silent about Xi Jinping. As for Dong Jun’s fate, it is hard to say. Generally speaking, it is predicted that he will either be arrested or retire to the CPPCC. In other words, few people predict that Dong Jun will still be China’s Minister of Defense after the two sessions next year. It can only be said that it still needs to be observed. If Dong Jun can come out one or two times in a row, then he may be able to retire safely to the CPPCC. If Liu Zhenli or Zhang Youxia comes out next time, it means that Dong Jun still has not passed.
Xi Jinping met with Azerbaijani President Aliyev. The Azerbaijani President shook hands with Zheng Zhajie. Why did he mention Zheng Zhajie? Because on April 22, 2025, CCTV and the National Development and Reform Commission of China held an event. Xi Jinping’s economic thoughts, Zheng Zhajie attended.
The entire event had three ministerial-level China Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Zhajie, Deputy Minister of the Central Propaganda Department, CCTV Director Shen Haixiong, and Deputy Director of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC Miao Wei. Then there were 6 deputy ministerial-level. In such a meeting to promote Xi Jinping’s economic thoughts, they were able to Xi core, Xi thought, two establishments, and the three elements I mentioned, without mentioning one. 3 ministerial-level and 6 deputy ministerial-level, a total of 9 people, actually did not mention the three elements. So they held this event, just in the name of Xi Jinping, to cheat funds. When the next general secretary comes to power, they will continue to flatter the next general secretary, anyway, they have to give them money and cheat the money. This is a meeting to flatter Xi Jinping’s economic thoughts, and they can’t mention any of the three elements.
And Li Shulei was absent from this meeting. This was April 22, 2025, but on April 23, Li Shulei came out to punch in. In theory, not many people follow my channel, but the CCP seems to have responded to me. Three Politburo members who have not appeared recently, Zhang Youxia, Li Ganjie, and Li Shulei, all came out to check in.
However, Li Ganjie and Li Shulei only checked in, and there was no report. It is still possible that they are investigated by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
I have made this formulaic and stylized, that is, whether there is Xi Jinping’s core Xi Jinping Thought, two establishments, and three elements. If there is no symbolic mention of Xi Jinping, the third is to completely avoid Xi Jinping and not mention Xi Jinping. Now we can observe all three situations.
Judging from the fact that Zhang Youxia met with the Indonesian Defense Minister on behalf of Xi Jinping, it is Zhang Youxia who is acting as the Chairman of the Military Commission.
There is another big melon.
On April 23, 2025, the National Naming Conference of Model Cities (Counties) for Supporting the Army and Supporting the People was held in Beijing. At the meeting, the important instructions of Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the State, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, were conveyed. Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, attended the conference and delivered a speech.
Although he was named Xi Jinping, he was not allowed to attend. That is to say, Xi Jinping is not allowed to participate in military activities now. At least this time, Xi Jinping is not allowed to participate, because Xi Jinping took a group photo at the commendation meeting for the model city of support for the army in October 2020. At that time, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, and Wang Huning participated.
Li Qiang went to speak. I don’t know whether Li Qiang is acting as the chairman of the Central Military Commission or Zhang Youxia is acting as the chairman of the Central Military Commission. Judging from Zhang Youxia’s participation in the meeting, Zhang Youxia is still acting as the chairman of the Central Military Commission. There are many melons in this meeting. First of all, Shen Yueyue appeared. It is rumored that Shen Yueyue accompanied Hu Chunhua to visit Africa and secretly visited the United States. There are also rumors that Shen Yueyue’s son-in-law, Wang Bo, chairman of Poly Culture Group, is serving as deputy mayor of Harbin.
I can’t judge the truth of this rumor. One way to verify it from the side is to look at the factions of Xu Qin, secretary of the Heilongjiang Provincial Party Committee, and Yu Hongtao, secretary of the Harbin Municipal Party Committee. Shen Yueyue was the executive deputy minister of the Organization Department during Hu Jintao’s second term. Back then, they were in power, and the top and second-in-command of the Organization Department were almost equally effective. Shen Yueyue is indeed Hu Jintao’s man, and there are rumors that Shen Yueyue will succeed the vice premier. Shen Yueyue is too old and should not take over. If Wang Bo is really Shen Yueyue’s son-in-law, then Xu Qin and Yu Hongtao should both be Hu Jintao’s men, which is reasonable. That is to say, even if Xu Qin and Yu Hongtao are Hu Jintao’s men and Shen Yueyue’s men, it cannot prove that Wang Bo is Shen Yueyue’s son-in-law. But that is definitely from the same faction, at least it is a reasonable speculation.
If Xu Qin and Yu Hongtao are Xi Jinping’s men, then Wang Bo is definitely not Shen Yueyue’s son-in-law. That is, it cannot be confirmed, but if it is not, it can be disproved. The logic is like this.
At this double support meeting, Li Shulei was asked to come out to punch in. Li Shulei just punched in, there was no separate report, so he had no chance to express his position.
I don’t know whether Li Shulei is facing an investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection or whether it is deliberately arranged because Li Shulei is the Minister of Propaganda. The last time Li Shulei appeared publicly was at a peripheral work meeting, and he just punched in and didn’t have any chance to express his views. I don’t know whether he deliberately arranged it this way to avoid expressing his views, or what happened.
Zhao Leji, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China, met with Kenyan President Ruto and Azerbaijani President Aliyev in Beijing on the afternoon of April 23, 2025. This is a diplomatic event, and there is no statement about the three major elements. It just mentioned Xi Jinping, and there is another function of punching in.
Then Wang Huning’s program effect came. The symposium on the special seminar on the work of the Party’s united front in the new era was held in Beijing on April 23, 2025. Wang Huning, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, attended and spoke. It is said that Wang Huning cannot see my small channel, and not many people watch it. But Wang Huning cooperated like this. I said three elements, and Wang Huning repeated them all neatly.
We must adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, deeply understand the decisive significance of “two establishments”, and resolutely implement “two safeguards”. Wang Huning said that since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core has comprehensively strengthened and systematically deployed united front work. The entire report is only 830 words, and then Wang Huning came up, not much nonsense, and directly repeated the three elements I mentioned. I was stunned and laughed, and just repeated the three elements I mentioned. Then I added some nonsense party jargon and ended it.
It feels like I am Wang Huning’s secretary. If I go into more detail, Wang Huning also added a sentence to fully implement the spirit of the Second and Third Plenary Sessions. Then put Xi Jinping’s core in the second paragraph. So Wang Huning’s meaning is that there is still a possibility of removing Xi Jinping’s core, because it is placed in the second paragraph, but whether it will be removed for the time being. I don’t know whether this is Wang Huning’s intention, Xinhua News Agency’s intention, or the Party Central Committee’s intention. The key lies in the communiqué of this month’s Political Bureau meeting and the statement of the Political Bureau meeting.
Let’s combine this information to see what the CCP really wants to express. Xi Jinping, as the president of the country, came out to engage in diplomatic activities, but he was not allowed to participate in the activities of the two armies. Zhang Youxia appeared on the news broadcast with Li Qiang. That means the news broadcast endorsed that Xi Jinping is no longer the chairman of the Central Military Commission. Then Wang Huning is the fourth person in the CCP. Because Wang Huning’s weight is not as good as Li Qiang and Zhao Leji, this is common sense.
Wang Huning means that Xi Jinping is still the core of the Party Central Committee for the time being, but he may not be in the future, but not now. Because Wang Huning is the fourth person, he came out to endorse, this signal is neither strong nor weak. If Li Qiang or Zhao Leji came out to endorse, it would be a bit too strong, and it feels like Xi Jinping is going to take power again.
Wang Huning originally engaged in united front work, and used to be a big pen, a fool, so it is appropriate for him to come out. This is my personal interpretation. Another one is that Cai Qi has not come out for 9 days. He Weidong has been missing for almost two months. And Wang Huning has an interpretation that Miao Hua may be dealt with at the Politburo meeting this month.
Ding Xuexiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi in Beijing on April 23, 2025. Ding Xuexiang was in a diplomatic activity and did not make any statement. He just mentioned Xi Jinping symbolically. Ding Xuexiang seemed to have undergone cataract surgery and suddenly wore thick reading glasses. We saw black reflections. Ding Xuexiang was really cruel and could get away with this method.
Now three members of the Political Bureau have performed the act of not mentioning Xi Jinping. They are Ma Xingrui, Yin Li, and Zhang Youxia. In fact, Zhang Youxia had done it a long time ago, but we may not have summarized it. Two members of the Political Bureau, Li Hongzhong and Chen Jining, and the Secretary of the Inner Mongolia Party Committee, Sun Shaocheng, performed it. Two confirmed and two maintained half. But this phenomenon has not yet spread to the level of the Political Bureau Standing Committee.
We try to interpret the signals given by the CPC as accurately as possible. Because now that Xi Jinping has stepped down, the overall situation has been determined, but how can we accurately assess when Xi Jinping will step down. Let’s say that he will take off several positions at the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee on August 8, 2025.
This netizen said
The direction of the wind is a bit obvious. In the latest meeting of Anhui Liang Yanshun, there was no mention of the three words 2442 and Xi Jinping. The whole article was “General Secretary” 😅
My reply is to thank this netizen.
This was published in Anhui Daily, the official newspaper of the Anhui Provincial Party Committee. There were two reports, one on April 22 and one on April 24. The General Secretary was mentioned twice in one report and seven times in another report, but Xi Jinping’s name was not mentioned. He has become Voldemort. Liang Yanshun loves us too much. He is afraid that we have no topics or jokes. It shows that insults can not only be published on YouTube, but also in party newspapers and journals. It can still be operated like this. I don’t know if this phenomenon will spread to other provincial party secretaries, and whether Liang Yanshun is leading the wind.
Okay, thank you everyone.
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