胡锦涛什么时间才能拿下习？女性能不能担任中办主任。沈跃跃之外的3名女性胡锦涛派系官员。董军又缺席
胡锦涛什么时间才能拿下习？女性能不能担任中办主任。沈跃跃之外的3名女性胡锦涛派系官员。董军又缺席
大家好， 传言沈跃跃担任中办主任，只是一名网友发给我的消息。但是很意外，性别居然成为话题。
这名网友说，
沈跃跃传言是胡锦涛的红颜知己😂不过中办主任跟副总理一样都是副国级，不算超越土共的女性官员天花板。蔡奇是以正国级书记处书记的身份兼职中办主任，本来早该把中办主任交出去了。
我的回复是，这还什么红颜知己呢，情人就说情人，这有什么不能说的。
这名网友说，
历史上还没有过女性的中办主任。
这名网友说，
沈跃跃能接中办主任吗？中共历史上从来就没有一位女性中办主任，从骨子里还是性别歧视、男权政党、塔利班哈马斯。
我的回复是
这个我说的已经很清楚了，沈跃跃已经给胡锦涛当了10年的中组部长。一直是副部长。但是常务副部长权限可以和部长媲美。中组部是总书记的核心权力，要不然怎么说中组部长换成石泰峰，等于要换总书记呢。胡锦涛既然把沈跃跃作为核心团队成员用了10年，那就说明胡锦涛是愿意使用女性官员。进步派胡锦涛，我不知道为什么性别会成为一个话题。
胡锦涛团队里面还有一个同性恋李瑞环呢。真的是进步派。
其实之前的节目，我有一期说过。胡锦涛团队有不少女性的成员。比如说海关署长孙梅君，这是一线的正部级，中共一线的正部级一共才几个？31个省长31个省委书记。国务院的正部长大概三四十个，党务系统的正部级30个左右。加起来一共只有一百二三十个。孙梅君是胡锦涛的干儿子李克强，担任副总理期间在中国统计局提拔的副局级官员。就是胡锦涛这几个干儿子他们都学他干爹。胡春华这个推特账号不管是真的，还是假的。他就是在复述他干爹胡锦涛的话。
还有一个是王宇燕，这是李克强担任河南省委书记期间的提拔的副局级官员。现在山东省副书记政法委书记，管着刀把子，自然是胡锦涛信任的人。
我之前总结薄熙来或者薄熙来老爸薄一波的马仔王茂林，提拔的正局级副局级官员。被习近平提拔成正部级副部级官员，包括杜兆才，俞建华，王受文，刘伟，李干杰，徐宪平。我发现有6官员，起码得有10名甚至20名，这就是冰山一角。
同样应该总结一个李克强提拔的正局级副局级官员，现在被胡锦涛提拔成正部级副部级官员。还有一个广东省委常委，副省长张国智。这是贺国强认识的官员，后来提拔的。
这4名官员，中组部常务副部长沈跃跃，海关署长孙梅君，这都是正部级官员。山东省副书记王宇燕，这是准正部级，肯定会提拔正部级的。广东省副省长张国智，这都是胡锦涛的马仔。说明胡锦涛还是愿意提拔的女性官员。当然这其实也没有几个，从比例上来说根本就没有多少。而且我之前给出的解释，就是因为女性的职业天花板。没有办法入常，导致习近平在和李克强的政治斗争之中。实在没办法阻挡就放行女性官员。
我真没有从性别对立的角度去理解这个问题。我不知道为什么这么喜欢争辩身份政治的问题。这个话题我也说过，边疆。胡春华就是土家族人，不是汉族人。这和胡锦涛的个人经历有关系，胡锦涛当过贵州书记，当过西藏书记，都是边疆，都是所谓少数民族聚居的地区。
中国完全是一个人治社会，这要看领导人的爱好和想法。即便不能完全贯彻他的意志，肯定也会部分反映出他个人的喜好。这个也是另外一个观点，江泽民，胡锦涛，习近平都是孤家寡人，他们的圈子很小。
这名网友说，
其实世上本没有520，250多了，也便成了520。
兄弟，这句评论要是下期要是不上大包节目，我必发帖骂他😂😂😂哈哈哈
天才！偷了。
Only fools rush in,这话不是中共国人创造的，是全宇宙的公理。
这名网友说，避孕套，壮阳药，都卖不出去了
这名网友说，饭都要吃不起了，还卖花，咋想的这些人。
我的回复是，
我是从中国经济困难和政治斗争激烈这个角度理解问题。没想到，还能成为性别对立的话题。
刘振立与泰国军队最高司令举行会谈
2025年5月22日，中央军委委员、中央军委联合参谋部参谋长刘振立同来华访问的泰国军队最高司令颂威举行会谈，双方围绕两国两军关系和国际地区形势等共同关心的问题交换意见，就加强战略沟通、深化联演联训等合作达成重要共识。
刘振立又出来首先就是第一个问题。首先现在军委除了习近平剩下三个人张又侠，刘振立，张升民。只要这三个人还在，就别说什么习近平反击这些扯淡的话。胡锦涛已经抓走了，三个军委委员，李尚福，苗华，何卫东。习近平如果要反击的话。一个军委委员他都抓不走。说反击那就是笑话。
第二层意思就是董军的问题。
2025年5月30日至6月1日，第22届香格里拉对话会在新加坡举行，这是亚洲最重要的防务峰会之一，吸引了全球高级军事官员与安全专家。然而，中国国防部长董军意外缺席，打破了过去多年来中国防长几乎无一例外参会的惯例。中央军委联合参谋部参谋长刘振立，于近期与泰国军队最高司令举行会谈，引发外界对董军政治处境的强烈猜测。董军的缺席与刘振立的代行职责，暗示董军未能通过内部审查，或已面临清洗风险。
香格里拉对话会由国际战略研究所（IISS）主办，是中美防长会面的重要平台，也是中国展示军事外交立场的关键场合。自2011年以来，中国国防部长几乎每年参会，2024年董军作为新任防长首次亮相，与美国防长劳埃德·奥斯汀会谈75分钟，讨论台湾、南海及乌克兰问题，强调“和平统一”与“危机沟通”。然而，2025年5月20日，《金融时报》援引五位知情人士消息，称中国政府已通知主办方，董军不会出席本届对话会，且未明确替代代表。这一“罕见缺席”打破了2019年以来的传统。
董军的缺席异常引人注目，原因有三。
第一，香格里拉对话会是中美军事沟通的战略窗口，2024年两国恢复军方高层对话后，董军与奥斯汀的会谈被视为稳定双边关系的关键。2025年，法国总统马克龙与新任美国防长皮特·海格塞斯将发表演讲，董军缺席不仅削弱中国在区域安全的话语权，还可能被解读为对美沟通的退缩。
第二，董军作为海军出身的首位防长，其2023年12月29日上任被视为习近平对海军战略的重视。缺席如此高规格的国际场合，与其角色定位不符。
第三，2024年11月，《金融时报》曾报道董军因涉嫌腐败接受调查，尽管2025年4月报道称其“似乎已洗清嫌疑”，但此次缺席再度点燃清洗传言。推测，董军可能卷入军委窝案，与苗华、何卫东等习近平亲信的落马有关，缺席或因“叛逃风险”被限制出境。
刘振立顶替会谈的信号
近期，刘振立以中央军委联合参谋部参谋长身份，顶替董军与泰国军队最高司令举行会谈，引发关注。
当然董军也会见了泰国司令
国防部长董军23日在京会见泰国军队最高司令颂威。
董军说，“中泰一家亲”传统友谊深厚，两国防务合作基础坚实、成果丰硕。中方愿同泰方一道，用好现有合作机制，进一步提升在联合训练、人员培训等领域合作水平，为中泰命运共同体建设贡献力量。
颂威说，泰中是友好近邻，泰方始终坚持一个中国原则。泰国军队愿与中方继续加强各领域务实交流合作，密切在多边事务中的协调，共同维护地区安全稳定。
这样就是董军和刘振立分别会见了泰国司令。
2025年5月，《联合早报》报道，刘振立近期还访问马来西亚、印尼，与两国防长及军方高层会晤，讨论双边军事合作，并在马来西亚受到总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣接见，规格堪比防长。刘振立以参谋长身份执行防长职责，显示董军已被边缘化。刘振立的活跃并非首次，2023年10月李尚福“失踪”期间，他曾在北京香山论坛代行防长职责，与美国代表会面。此次顶替泰国会谈，进一步暗示董军未能通过内部审查，可能已被限制履职。
董军有可能被边控，不让董军去新加坡也不让董军去马来西亚和印尼。但是董军前两天不是刚刚访问法国吗？
刘振立的角色值得深究。作为军委委员与参谋长，是胡锦涛的铁杆马仔，而非习近平的“习家军”。刘振立曾经是李尚福接班防长的热门人选，但习近平选择更忠诚的董军，反映派系博弈。如今苗华、何卫东相继落马，刘振立的代行职责表明习近平已经完全丧失军权，胡锦涛掌握军权。董军在三中全会上没有被任命为中央军委委员或国务委员，证明胡锦涛主导了三种全会。胡锦涛还会继续主导四中全会。
董军和刘振立只字不提习近平。习近平事实上已经不再是军委主席。总书记和国家主席还在装。军委主席连装都不让装了。
政治信号完全是矛盾的
军队所有的信号表明已经彻底不让习近平插手了。总书记和国家主席，表面上还在让习近平演出，这种拧巴的，矛盾的信号的，就是胡锦涛所谓维稳的风格。
董军这个，如果那个大威能够准确的说出，董军什么时间被官宣调查，那才是真的消息。不然都是在编故事。
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
When will Hu Jintao be able to take down Xi? Can women serve as the director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee? Three female officials of Hu Jintao’s faction besides Shen Yueyue. Dong Jun is absent again
Hello everyone, the rumor that Shen Yueyue is the director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee is just a message sent to me by a netizen. But surprisingly, gender has become a topic.
This netizen said,
Shen Yueyue is rumored to be Hu Jintao’s confidante😂But the director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee is at the vice-state level like the vice premier, which is not considered to exceed the ceiling of female officials of the Turkish Communist Party. Cai Qi is the director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee as a state-level secretary of the Secretariat, and he should have handed over the directorship of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee long ago.
My reply is, what confidante is this? Just say lover, what can’t be said about this.
This netizen said,
There has never been a female director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee in history.
This netizen said,
Can Shen Yueyue take over the directorship of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee? There has never been a female director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee in the history of the CPC Central Committee. In its bones, it is still a sexist, patriarchal party, Taliban and Hamas.
My reply is
I have made it very clear that Shen Yueyue has served as the Minister of Organization for Hu Jintao for 10 years. She has always been a deputy minister. But the power of the executive deputy minister is comparable to that of the minister. The Organization Department is the core power of the General Secretary. Otherwise, how can it be said that the replacement of the Minister of Organization with Shi Taifeng is equivalent to the replacement of the General Secretary. Since Hu Jintao has used Shen Yueyue as a member of the core team for 10 years, it means that Hu Jintao is willing to use female officials. I don’t know why gender has become a topic for the progressive Hu Jintao.
There is also a homosexual Li Ruihuan in Hu Jintao’s team. He is really a progressive.
In fact, I said in one of the previous programs. There are many female members in Hu Jintao’s team. For example, Sun Meijun, the Director of Customs, is a first-line ministerial level. How many first-line ministerial level members are there in the Communist Party of China? 31 provincial governors and 31 provincial party secretaries. There are about 30 to 40 ministers in the State Council, and about 30 ministerial level members in the party affairs system. Add up to only 120 to 30. Sun Meijun is a deputy bureau-level official promoted by Li Keqiang, Hu Jintao’s godson, during his tenure as vice premier. Hu Jintao’s godsons all learn from their godfather. Whether Hu Chunhua’s Twitter account is real or fake, he is just repeating the words of his godfather Hu Jintao.
Another one is Wang Yuyan, a deputy bureau-level official promoted by Li Keqiang during his tenure as secretary of the Henan Provincial Party Committee. Now the deputy secretary of Shandong Province and secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission, he is in charge of the knife handle, and naturally he is someone Hu Jintao trusts.
I previously summarized the bureau-level and deputy bureau-level officials promoted by Wang Maolin, a henchman of Bo Xilai or Bo Xilai’s father Bo Yibo. The officials promoted to ministerial and deputy ministerial levels by Xi Jinping include Du Zhaocai, Yu Jianhua, Wang Shouwen, Liu Wei, Li Ganjie, and Xu Xianping. I found that there are 6 officials, at least 10 or even 20, and this is just the tip of the iceberg.
We should also summarize the official who was promoted by Li Keqiang to be a bureau-level or deputy bureau-level official, and was now promoted by Hu Jintao to be a minister-level or deputy minister-level official. There is also a member of the Standing Committee of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee and Deputy Governor Zhang Guozhi. This is an official that He Guoqiang knows and was later promoted.
These four officials, Shen Yueyue, Executive Deputy Minister of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee, and Sun Meijun, Director of the Customs Administration, are all minister-level officials. Wang Yuyan, Deputy Secretary of Shandong Province, is at the quasi-ministerial level and will definitely be promoted to the ministerial level. Zhang Guozhi, Deputy Governor of Guangdong Province, is a henchman of Hu Jintao. This shows that Hu Jintao is still willing to promote female officials. Of course, there are actually not many of them, and there are not many in terms of proportion. And the explanation I gave before is that it is because of the career ceiling of women. There is no way to enter the Standing Committee, which leads to Xi Jinping’s political struggle with Li Keqiang. If there is really no way to stop it, just let the female officials go.
I really don’t understand this issue from the perspective of gender opposition. I don’t know why I like to argue about identity politics so much. I have also talked about this topic, frontier. Hu Chunhua is a Tujia, not a Han. This has something to do with Hu Jintao’s personal experience. Hu Jintao has served as the secretary of Guizhou and Tibet, both of which are frontiers and so-called ethnic minority areas.
China is a society ruled by one person, and it depends on the leader’s hobbies and ideas. Even if his will cannot be fully implemented, it will certainly reflect his personal preferences in part. This is another point of view. Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping are all lonely people, and their circles are very small.
This netizen said,
In fact, there is no 520 in the world. There are more than 250, so it becomes 520.
Brother, if this comment is not on the next episode of the big package program, I will post a post to scold him 😂😂😂hahaha
Genius! Stolen.
Only fools rush in, this saying is not created by the Chinese Communists, it is the axiom of the universe.
This netizen said that condoms and aphrodisiacs can no longer be sold.
This netizen said that they can’t even afford to eat, and they still sell flowers. What do these people think?
My reply is,
I understand the problem from the perspective of China’s economic difficulties and fierce political struggles. I didn’t expect that it could become a topic of gender confrontation.
Liu Zhenli held talks with the Supreme Commander of the Thai Army
On May 22, 2025, Liu Zhenli, member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, held talks with the Supreme Commander of the Thai Army, Songwei, who was visiting China. The two sides exchanged views on issues of common concern such as relations between the two countries and the two militaries and the international and regional situation, and reached important consensus on strengthening strategic communication and deepening cooperation such as joint exercises and training.
Liu Zhenli came out again and the first question was the first one. First of all, there are only three people left in the Military Commission besides Xi Jinping, Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, and Zhang Shengmin. As long as these three people are still there, don’t say that Xi Jinping fights back. These nonsense. Hu Jintao has already arrested three members of the Military Commission, Li Shangfu, Miao Hua, and He Weidong. If Xi Jinping wants to fight back. He couldn’t even arrest a member of the Military Commission. It’s a joke to talk about fighting back.
The second meaning is the problem of Dong Jun.
From May 30 to June 1, 2025, the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue was held in Singapore. It is one of the most important defense summits in Asia and has attracted senior military officials and security experts from around the world. However, the unexpected absence of Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun broke the convention that almost all Chinese defense ministers have attended the meeting in the past years. Liu Zhenli, Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, recently held talks with the Supreme Commander of the Thai Army, which triggered strong speculation about Dong Jun’s political situation. Dong Jun’s absence and Liu Zhenli’s acting duties suggest that Dong Jun has failed the internal review and may be facing the risk of being purged.
The Shangri-La Dialogue is hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). It is an important platform for the meeting between the defense ministers of China and the United States, and a key occasion for China to demonstrate its military and diplomatic stance. Since 2011, the Chinese Minister of Defense has attended the meeting almost every year. In 2024, Dong Jun made his debut as the new Minister of Defense and held talks with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin for 75 minutes to discuss Taiwan, the South China Sea and Ukraine, emphasizing “peaceful reunification” and “crisis communication”. However, on May 20, 2025, the Financial Times quoted five people familiar with the matter as saying that the Chinese government had informed the organizers that Dong Jun would not attend this dialogue and did not specify a replacement representative. This “rare absence” broke the tradition since 2019.
Dong Jun’s absence is unusually eye-catching for three reasons.
First, the Shangri-La Dialogue is a strategic window for military communication between China and the United States. After the two countries resumed high-level military dialogue in 2024, Dong Jun’s talks with Austin were seen as the key to stabilizing bilateral relations. In 2025, French President Macron and the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hagerseth will deliver speeches. Dong Jun’s absence not only weakens China’s voice in regional security, but may also be interpreted as a retreat from communication with the United States.
Second, as the first defense minister from the navy, Dong Jun’s appointment on December 29, 2023 is seen as Xi Jinping’s emphasis on naval strategy. His absence from such a high-level international occasion is inconsistent with his role positioning.
Third, in November 2024, the Financial Times reported that Dong Jun was under investigation for suspected corruption. Although it was reported in April 2025 that he “seemed to have been cleared of suspicion”, his absence once again ignited rumors of a purge. It is speculated that Dong Jun may be involved in a military commission case, which is related to the fall of Xi Jinping’s cronies such as Miao Hua and He Weidong. His absence may be restricted from leaving the country due to “risk of defection”.
Liu Zhenli’s signal of replacing the talks
Recently, Liu Zhenli, as the chief of staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, replaced Dong Jun and held talks with the Supreme Commander of the Thai Army, which attracted attention.
Of course, Dong Jun also met with the Thai commander
Defense Minister Dong Jun met with the Supreme Commander of the Thai Army, Songvi, in Beijing on the 23rd.
Dong Jun said that the traditional friendship of “China and Thailand are one family” is profound, and the defense cooperation between the two countries has a solid foundation and fruitful results. China is willing to work with Thailand to make good use of the existing cooperation mechanism, further enhance the level of cooperation in joint training, personnel training and other fields, and contribute to the construction of a community with a shared future between China and Thailand.
Songwei said that Thailand and China are friendly neighbors, and Thailand has always adhered to the one-China principle. The Thai military is willing to continue to strengthen practical exchanges and cooperation in various fields with China, close coordination in multilateral affairs, and jointly maintain regional security and stability.
This is how Dong Jun and Liu Zhenli met with the Thai commander respectively.
In May 2025, Lianhe Zaobao reported that Liu Zhenli also visited Malaysia and Indonesia recently, met with the defense ministers and senior military officials of the two countries to discuss bilateral military cooperation, and was received by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Malaysia, with a standard comparable to that of the defense minister. Liu Zhenli performed the duties of the defense minister as the chief of staff, showing that Dong Jun has been marginalized. This is not the first time that Liu Zhenli has been active. During the period when Li Shangfu “disappeared” in October 2023, he acted as defense minister at the Beijing Xiangshan Forum and met with US representatives. This time, replacing the Thai talks further implies that Dong Jun failed to pass the internal review and may have been restricted from performing his duties.
Dong Jun may be under border control, and Dong Jun is not allowed to go to Singapore, Malaysia or Indonesia. But didn’t Dong Jun just visit France two days ago?
Liu Zhenli’s role is worth exploring. As a member of the Military Commission and Chief of Staff, he is Hu Jintao’s iron henchman, not Xi Jinping’s “Xi Family Army”. Liu Zhenli was once a popular candidate to succeed Li Shangfu as defense minister, but Xi Jinping chose the more loyal Dong Jun, reflecting factional game. Now that Miao Hua and He Weidong have been removed from office, Liu Zhenli’s acting duties indicate that Xi Jinping has completely lost military power and Hu Jintao is in control of it. Dong Jun was not appointed as a member of the Central Military Commission or a State Councilor at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, proving that Hu Jintao dominated the three plenary sessions. Hu Jintao will continue to lead the Fourth Plenary Session.
Dong Jun and Liu Zhenli did not mention Xi Jinping at all. Xi Jinping is no longer the Chairman of the Military Commission. The General Secretary and the President are still pretending. The Chairman of the Military Commission is not even allowed to pretend.
The political signals are completely contradictory
All the signals from the military show that Xi Jinping has been completely stopped from interfering. The General Secretary and the President are still letting Xi Jinping perform on the surface. This twisted and contradictory signal is the so-called stability maintenance style of Hu Jintao.
Regarding Dong Jun, if that Dawei can accurately say when Dong Jun was officially investigated, that would be the real news. Otherwise, they are all making up stories.
Okay, thank you everyone.
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